The Cleveland Guardians (14-16) and New York Yankees (16-15) cap off a 3-game series at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday evening. First pitch is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: New York leads 3-2
The 1st 2 games of this series have been pitchers’ duels. That’s nothing new for Cleveland, which has seen the Under go 18-11-1 in its 30 games.
New York’s offense has been sleepwalking of late, partly due to the absence of OF Aaron Judge, who is on the 10-day IL (hip). The Yankees won 4-2 on Tuesday; the scoring output was their largest since April 27.
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Guardians at Yankees projected starters
RHP Shane Bieber vs. RHP Clarke Schmidt
Bieber (2-1, 3.11 ERA) is making his 7th star. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 37 2/3 IP.
- Current Yankees batters own an aggregate .800 OPS against him
- Owns a 2.75 road ERA over the last 3 seasons (2021-23)
- Current 6.2 K/9 figure is worst of his career; had an 8.9 K/9 last season
Schmidt (0-3, 6.84 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.68 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 in 25 IP.
- Allowed 5 ER in his last start and has yielded 3 ER or more in 5 of 6 turns
- April 12 vs. Guardians: 4 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K and no-decision in Yankees’ 4-3 win
- Figures to see a lot of lefty bats in the Cleveland lineup; has allowed a .995 OPS against lefties over his career
Guardians at Yankees odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:29 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Guardians -136 (bet $136 to win $100) | Yankees +116 (bet $100 to win $116)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+115) | Yankees +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Guardians at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 5, Yankees 4
Moneyline
The Yankees have played a tough slate pitching-wise, and their batting numbers have some regression likely due that helps the attack. The Guardians have had an easy slate for their pitchers. Expect their runs-allowed figures to climb.
New York is the lean, but hold out for a +120 before logging on to an account. PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The better value play on the New York side is YANKEES +1.5 (-140).
Both starters have expected-ERA analytics that belie their surface figures. Accounting for factors like batting average on balls in play, left-on-base rates, home runs as a percentage of fly balls, and high-leverage results, Bieber is deserving of a higher ERA and Clarke a lower one. That’s not to say Clarke is Bieber’s equal on the mound; just that with New York having solid numbers against Bieber, with Cleveland being a club that plays a lot of 1-run games, and the Yankee offense perhaps not being near enough to its normal capacity, the home nine has value on a fairly priced Run Line.
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Over/Under
The starting pitching is a mixed bag, but there is some solid fade to both bullpens. Perhaps the Yankee offense needs Judge back before it can be counted on to pull its weight in an Over play. But for a 3rd straight day in the Bronx, that Over — in this case, OVER 7.5 (-115) — is the play.
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