The Cleveland Guardians (26-32) and Minnesota Twins (31-28) close out a 4-game set Sunday at Target Field. First pitch is at 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 3-3
The Guardians got back in the win column with a 4-2 victory Saturday. They had 12 hits and scored 2 in the 7th inning and 1 more in the 9th to seal the deal. Cleveland has just been treading water thus far, 5-5, 9-11 and 13-17 over the last 10, 20 and 30 games, respectively.
The Twins snapped a 3-game winning streak Saturday as they took the first 2 of the series 7-6 and 1-0. They are 6-4 over the last 10 games as they try to extend their lead in the AL Central. Minnesota is 18-13 at home and 12-7 in the division.
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Guardians at Twins projected starters
RHP Triston McKenzie vs. RHP Joe Ryan
McKenzie is making his season debut after recovering from a shoulder injury. He was 11-11 with a 2.96 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 191 1/3 innings last season.
- Had a 4.35 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 13 K in 10 1/3 IP at Triple-A Columbus during 3 rehab starts.
- Last 5 starts vs. Twins: 1-2, 5.46 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 29 K in 31 1/3 IP
Ryan (7-2, 2.77 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 65 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 5 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 6 K vs. Houston Astros Tuesday
- Last 5 starts vs. Guardians: 2-1, 2.05 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 26 K in 30 2/3 IP
Guardians at Twins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Twins -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-160) | Twins -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Guardians at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 4, Guardians 2
Moneyline
Ryan is having the best season of his career, but he was tripped up by a surging Astros team in his last start. I look for him to rebound here as he has allowed just 7 ER in 30 2/3 IP over his last 5 starts against Cleveland.
I’m willing to take the -155 Twins moneyline. If you want to go there and call it a day, by all means do so. There’s a ton of value if you want to get creative, though. Head to the Win/Total section and give TWINS AND UNDER 8.5 (+170) for a HALF-UNIT and TWINS AND UNDER 9.5 (+130) for a FULL UNIT.
Run line/Against the spread
The Twins are just 29-30 on the RL this season and 14-17 at home. The 1st 2 games of this series were decided by 1 run, and I’m just not feeling them in this spot. We are forecasting a multi-run win, but Cleveland has the 2nd-best bullpen ERA at 3.08. McKenzie is also extremely talented, but I don’t look for him to go deep into this one in his first start.
PASS.
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Over/Under
These are both Under teams. Cleveland is 19-36-3 O/U, and Minnesota is 25-31-3. We’re in a big ballpark with a 6-mph wind coming in from center field. The Under has cashed in 7 of the last 10 meetings, and it’s 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
We have already taken Under 9.5 and 8.5 in the moneyline section, and I’d rather stand pat there. I think both starters do their part early on, and I will take UNDER 4.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS (-155).
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