The Cleveland Guardians (25-31) and Minnesota Twins (30-27) clash in an AL Central showdown Friday in Minneapolis. First pitch at Target Field is slated for 8:10 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Twins lead 1-0
Cleveland lost Thursday’s series opener 7-6. The Guardians led 6-3 going into the bottom of the 8th, but Minnesota scored 3 runs in the 8th and a game-winner in the 9th. Cleveland is 3-9 over its last 12 road games.
The Minnesota offense has been feast or famine recently. The Twins have scored 7 or more runs 5 times and 1 run or fewer 3 times in their last 8 games.
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Guardians at Twins projected starters
RHP Aaron Civale vs. RHP Bailey Ober
Civale (1-1, 2.84 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 through 12 2/3 IP.
- Returning from an oblique strain and a lengthy stay on the IL
- Last pitched in an MLB game on April 7: 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 5 K vs. the Seattle Mariners
- Owns a 5.14 ERA over his last 5 starts against Minnesota (2020-22)
Ober (3-2, 2.68 ERA) makes his 8th start. He owns a 1.02 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 40 1/3 IP.
- Has held current Cleveland batters to an aggregate .157/.189/.196 (.385 OPS) line
- Started the season at Triple-A and made his season debut on April 23
- Has benefited from a .257 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and a low 5.1% home runs/fly balls (HR/FB) mark
Guardians at Twins odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:53 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Guardians +114 (bet $100 to win $114) | Twins -134 (bet $134 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-184) | Twins -1.5 (+152)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Guardians at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 6, Guardians 4
Moneyline
Take the baselines for the starting pitchers, add in some gray area for the Civale return — a plus for the Minnesota offense — and a couple of percentage ticks for the home side, and the lines here are tough to parse.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
Take the ML commentary and add extra juice: AVOID.
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Over/Under
The Over is 5-2 in the last 7 series meetings in Minnesota.
The Twins’ offense has been average thus far, but Minnesota has been awful in high-leverage situations in part due to a .259 BABIP in those spots. With solid home numbers (.773 OPS), it’s not a reach to consider Minnesota to be a top-10 offense in waiting.
Civale is a talented hurler, but what Cleveland gets out of him in this return is a question mark, and Ober is too far out over his skis with his surface ERA. Both bullpens are outperforming their numbers too, and the Guardians’ relief corps — at least at the back end — is not set up well after being used in trying to nurse a lead on Thursday.
On a warm evening in Minneapolis, BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-105).
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