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The Cleveland Guardians (62-70) and the Minnesota Twins (69-63) play the middle contest of a 3-game set Tuesday at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: tied 4-4 after Minnesota’s 10-6 win Monday night
The Guardians fired out to a 4-0 lead in the top of the 2nd inning in Monday’s series opener, but it was all downhill from there. Cleveland coughed up 6 runs in the bottom of the 2nd and was outscored 4-2 from the 3rd frame onward.
Twins 3B Royce Lewis had the big blow in Monday’s win, as he cracked a grand slam for the 2nd consecutive day. He has 3 grand slams in just 50 career MLB games.
Minnesota is now up 7 games on the 2nd-place Guardians in the AL Central and is the only team in the division with a record above .500 and a positive run differential (+51). The Twins improved to 40-27 at home Monday while the Guardians dropped to 29-37 on the road.
Guardians at Twins projected starters
RHP Gavin Williams vs. RHP Pablo Lopez
Williams (1-5, 3.52 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 64 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 7 R (5 ER), 8 H, 2 BB and 5 K in 9-3 home loss vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Thursday
- 2023 road splits: 0-2, 2.05 ERA (22 IP, 5 ER), 1 HR, 1.05 WHIP, .187 opponent batting average (OBA) in 4 starts
Lopez (9-6, 3.69 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 158 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 5 ER, 10 H (3 HR), 1 BB, 4 K in a 7-5 home win vs. the Texas Rangers Thursday
- 2023 home splits: 4-2, 4.62 ERA (74 IP, 38 ER), 9 HR, 1.22 WHIP, .249 OBA in 12 starts
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Guardians at Twins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:14 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Twins -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-145) | Twins -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Guardians at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 7, Guardians 3
Moneyline
The TWINS (-175) are a little close to my personal limit for a singular moneyline play. However, Minnesota is playing good ball lately, and its lead has ballooned to 7 games in the AL Central over the Guardians.
Cleveland had been getting decent pitching, but Minnesota’s bats came alive in the opener for a 10-spot, and Lewis is swinging a red-hot twig right now.
Run line/Against the spread
The TWINS -1.5 (+120) are a decent play at plus money on the run line.
Minnesota covered the run line as a favorite in the series opener, and it has won and covered the run line each of its past 4 games as a favorite dating back to Aug. 20.
Over/Under
OVER 8 (-115) is the lean in the middle game of this set.
The Twins cashed the Over all on their own in Monday’s series opener. The Over is 3-2-1 in the past 6 starts by Lopez. The Over is also 6-2 in his past 8 outings at Target Field, including a 7-6 victory by the Twins on June 1.
Cleveland is looking to cash the Over for a 4th consecutive game Tuesday, which would be the 2nd-longest streak of the season. It had 6 straight Over results from July 16-21.
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