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The Cleveland Guardians (62-69) and the Minnesota Twins (68-63) open a 3-game set Monday at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Guardians lead 4-3
This might be the final nail in the coffin for the Guardians, as they enter the series 6 games back of the Twins in the AL Central Division race. Cleveland enters the series with a 3.5% chance of making the postseason in the AL.
The Guardians took 2 of 3 games over the weekend in Toronto, winning both games as a moderate underdog. The Over has cashed in 2 straight, and 3 of the past 4 games overall.
The Twins racked up 3 wins in a 4-game series over the weekend against the Texas Rangers in a potential playoff matchup. The Over went 3-0-1 in the series, and is an impressive 5-0-1 across the last 6 games for Minnesota.
Guardians at Twins projected starters
RHP Xzavion Curry vs. RHP Kenta Maeda
Curry (3-2, 3.51 ERA) makes his 8th start and 33rd overall appearance. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 77 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 2 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 1 K in a 6-1 home loss vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers Wednesday
- 2023 road splits: 1-1, 4.11 ERA (35 IP, 16 ER), 6 HR, 1.29 WHIP, .259 opponent batting average (OBA) in 3 starts and 12 relief appearances
- 2023 vs. Twins: 1 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 K in a relief appearance May 5 in Cleveland
Maeda (3-7, 4.22 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 74 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K in an 8-7 road loss in 10 innings vs. the Milwaukee Brewers Wednesday
- 2023 home splits: 2-2, 5.57 ERA (32 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 6 HR, 1.33 WHIP, .282 OBA in 6 starts
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Guardians at Twins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:33 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Twins -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-150) | Twins -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Guardians at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 4, Twins 3
Moneyline
The GUARDIANS (+140) are a decent play as a moderate underdog in the opener of this important series.
Curry has been rather mild on the road lately, pun totally intended. He allowed 5 ER and 6 H across 5 IP in his most recent road outing, a no-decision at Tampa Bay on Aug. 11. However, he has allowed just 6 ER across 13 2/3 IP in his last 3 road starts and 2 relief appearances.
Meanwhile, Maeda cannot be trusted for the Twins (-165). The veteran has been socked around at home, and he just cannot seem to get comfortable at Target Field.
Run line/Against the spread
The GUARDIANS +1.5 (-150) aren’t priced out of line if you’d like a little bit of insurance, and you just cannot bring yourself to back Cleveland straight up.
Remember, however, the Guardians have won 4 of the 1st 7 meetings with the Twins this season, and Cleveland is 10-5 in the past 15 games as an underdog on the run line, winning 7 of those games outright.
Over/Under
UNDER 8.5 (-105) is the lean in this series opener.
The Under has cashed in the last 2 starts for Curry, and the total has gone low in 3 of the last 5 road outings for the Guardians. The Under also cashed in the final 3 contests in a 4-game series against the Twins at Target Field from June 1-4.
The Over has been on a roll for the Twins lately, going 5-0-1 in the last 6 games overall, but the Under is 4-3 in the last 7 against divisional foes, and 6-1 in the lpast 7 meetings with Cleveland this season.
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