The Cleveland Guardians (41-41) take the field against the Kansas City Royals (31-52) Sunday at the Kauffman Stadium for the finale of a 3-game set. First pitch is set for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Royals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Cleveland leads 6-3.
KC stole the first game 4-3 with a walkoff situation Friday night. That inflamed the Guardians as they dished out a 13-1 whooping Saturday. The win ended a 5-game losing streak for the Guardians, who are just 3-7 over the last 10.
The Royals have traded wins and losses over the last 10 with a 5-5 mark. They have been surprisingly good in tight games with a 9-8 record in 1-run games. So you have to get on them early and keep them down.
Guardians at Royals projected starters
RHP Zach Plesac vs. RHP Zack Greinke
Plesac (2-6, 3.80 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 in 85 1/3 IP.
- Has been awesome his last 4 starts with a 1.50 ERA, though he’s 0-2 during the stretch.
- In 2 starts against KC this year, he has allowed 1 ER with 8 K in 11 2/3 IP.
- He’s 1-4 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the road vs. 1-2 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.27 WHIP at home.
Greinke (2-5, 4.85 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 4.5 K/9 in 68 2/3 IP.
- He allowed 1 ER on 5 hits and a walk with 1 K in 5 2/3 innings in a no-decision in the 3-1 Opening Day win against Cleveland.
- He’s 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at home vs. 0-4 with a 7.46 ERA and 1.57 WHIP on the road.
Guardians at Royals odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:19 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Guardians -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Royals +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+125) | Royals +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Guardians at Royals picks and predictions
Prediction
Royals 3, Guardians 2
Money line
I don’t know if Greinke wants to be traded, but he’s on a 1-year, $13 million deal, and KC is going nowhere. Odds are he goes and his audition for other teams starts Sunday. He got knocked around by his former team in Houston last time out for 6 ER on 10 hits in 5 IP, but he allowed just 1 ER in each of his previous 2 starts. That was a wakeup call. Greinke deals, and KC wins a tight one at home. Take the ROYALS +105.
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Run line/Against the spread
The Royals +1.5 (-155) isn’t out of the realm, but they have been so good in 1-run games it almost behooves you to PASS on the run line and put that hedge fund on the ML.
Over/Under
The Under is 4-0 in Plesac’s last 4 starts. The Under is 7-0 in Greinke’s last 7 home starts. There is more evidence for the Under, but that Greinke home stat is poignant. Both pitchers are hot, let’s ride the UNDER 8.5 (-102).
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