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The Cleveland Guardians and the Kansas City Royals open their 2025 Major League Baseball regular season Thursday at Kauffman Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Guardians vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Royals won 8-5 in 2024
In winning the season series 8-5 last season, the Royals went 4-3 at home. The Under went 4-2-1 in those 7 meetings in Kansas City.
The weather forecast is sensational, calling for temperatures in the upper 70’s with mostly cloudy conditions. However, the winds will be steady 13-16 MPH, with gusts up to 20 MPH, out to the left-center field power alley.
The Guardians routed the then Oakland Athletics 8-0 on the road in last season’s opener on March 28. These teams met on Opening Day back on April 7, 2023, in Kansas City, with the Royals winning 3-1 as short ‘dogs (+110) as the Under (7) cashed.
Cleveland’s Opening Day starter, RHP Tanner Bibee, signed a 5-year, $48 million contract extension last week, with a club option for 2030. He will be making his first career MLB Opening Day start.
Kansas City lost 4-1 at home to the Minnesota Twins in last season’s opener at home on March 28. The Under (8.5) cashed in that loss. Prior to that, the Royals lost 2-0 in the opener on March 30, 2023, also against the Twins.
Guardians at Royals projected starters
RHP Tanner Bibee vs. LHP Cole Ragans
Bibee (12-8, 3.47 ERA) made 31 starts in 2024. He had a 1.12 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 173 2/3 IP.
- 2024 road splits: 7-4, 2.76 ERA (84 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 11 HR, 22 BB, 88 K, 1.18 WHIP in 15 starts
- 2024 splits vs. KC: 2-0, 4.09 ERA (22 IP, 10 ER), 5 HR, 6 BB, 22 K, 1.18 WHIP in 4 starts
Ragans (11-9, 3.14 ERA) made 32 starts in 2024. He had a 1.14 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 186 1/3 IP.
- 2024 home splits: 7-5, 3.40 ERA (95 1/3 IP, 36 ER), 4 HR, 34 BB, 122 K, 1.21 WHIP in 17 starts (1 CG)
- 2024 splits vs. Cleveland: 0-1, 6.23 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1 HR, 5 BB, 10 K, 1.62 WHIP in 2 starts
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Guardians at Royals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 7:05 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Royals -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-210) | Royals -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Guardians at Royals picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 4, Royals 3
Moneyline
The GUARDIANS (+110) are a solid bet behind Bibee in this Opening Day start on the road against the Royals.
The right-hander with the newly fattened-up wallet handled Kansas City with aplomb in 2024, winning his only 2 decisions in 4 starts.
The Royals edged the Guardians in 2024 in both the season series, as well as at home, but look for Bibee to get Cleveland off on the right foot here.
Run line/Against the spread
The Guardians +1.5 (-210) will cost you more than 2 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not enough reward.
If you’re a bit on the conservative side, or you’d just like some insurance, backing Cleveland isn’t a terrible idea as part of a multi-leg parlay, especially if you are using a boost/promotion.
However, AVOID the Guardians on the run line as a standalone play.
Over/Under
UNDER 7.5 (-120) is the lean, but go lightly. Remember, the winds will be gusty up 15-20 MPH to the left-center field power alley.
Generally, the pitchers are ahead of the batters early in the season.
The Under is 3-0-1 in the past 4 meetings at Kauffman Stadium. And, for what it’s worth, the total went low in Ragans’ final 6 regular-season starts, and his 2 postseason appearances, too.
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