The Houston Astros (27-16) host the Cleveland Guardians (18-20) for the 2nd of their 3-game series at Minute Maid Park with the first pitch scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Cleveland won the series opener Monday 6-1. Guardians SP Triston McKenzie went 7 IP with 1 ER on 3 H, 1 HR and 1 BB with 3 K and 3B Jose Ramirez hit 2-for-5 with a HR, 1 double, 1 stolen base and 4 RBIs.
Guardians at Astros projected starters
RHP Zach Plesac vs. LHP Framber Valdez
Plesac is 1-3 with a 4.42 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 in 38 2/3 IP over 7 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Cleveland’s 5-4 home loss May 17 to the Cincinnati Reds with 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 3 K.
Valdez is 3-2 with a 2.68 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 47 IP over 8 starts.
- Last start: Won 5-1 at home vs. the Texas Rangers May 19 with 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 7 K.
- 2021 vs. the Guardians: Won 7-2 in Cleveland July 1 with 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 5 BB and 6 K.
Guardians at Astros odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:53 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Guardians +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Astros -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-117) | Astros -1.5 (-103)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Guardians at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 6, Guardians 2
Money line
LEAN ASTROS (-220) because they have a 3-phase edge over the Guardians (+175) Tuesday, but that’s accurately accounted for in the pricing.
The Astros crush right-handed pitching while the Guardians struggle vs. lefties, Valdez is in elite form whereas Plesac has regressed and Houston’s bullpen has the best ERA in MLB.
Houston’s RL is a better option and “risk” 1 unit instead of betting 1 unit if betting the Astros (-220).
The Astros are 12-4 SU as home favorites and 7-2 SU in their last 9 meetings with the Guardians, who are 5-11 SU as road underdogs.
It’s only a LEAN ASTROS (-220) because Houston’s RL has a better payout.
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Run line/Against the spread
BET ASTROS -1.5 (-103) based on their aforementioned edges over the Guardians +1.5 (-117) and Cleveland is just 7-9 RL as road underdogs.
Houston’s lineup ranks 4th in wRC+ (120), 7th in both wOBA (.325) and hard-hit rate (32.6%) and 5th in BB/K rate (0.43) vs. right-handed pitching, per FanGraphs.
While Cleveland’s lineup has a 80 wRC+ (ranked 26th), .274 in wOBA (28th) and a 28.6% hard-hit rate (19th).
Valdez grades in the 98th percentile of barrel rate, 81st percentile in hard-hit rate and 88th percentile in expected slugging percentage, according to Statcast. Also, all 5 of Valdez’s pitches has a minus-run value.
BET the ASTROS -1.5 (-103).
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-125) since Houston’s RL is my best bet in this game.
But, Cleveland’s lineup is terrible vs. left-handed pitching, Valdez is dealing at the moment and Minute Maid Park is more pitcher-friendly, ranking 26th in park factor.
Also, the Guardians are 0-4 O/U in their last 4 games, the Astros are 0-4 O/U in Valdez’s last 4 starts and Houston is 8-26 O/U as favorites (4-12 O/U as home favorites).
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