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The Cleveland Guardians (12-6) and Boston Red Sox (10-9) wrap up a 4-game series Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Guardians lead 2-1
Cleveland won the first 2 games of this series Monday (6-0) and Tuesday (10-7 in 11 innings), but Boston posted a 2-0 victory Wednesday as the Under (8) was never in question.
The Guardians had scored at least 2 runs in each of their first 17 games before Wednesday’s shutout loss. Cleveland had 16 runs in the first 2 outings of this series, and 24 total runs in the 3 games prior to Wednesday night. The Over has a slight 5-3 edge in the past 8 contests for the Guardians.
Boston allowed a season-high 10 runs in Tuesday’s loss, but it recorded a 3rd shutout win in just 19 games. The Under has connected in 5 of the past 6 games for the Red Sox.
Guardians at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. LHP Brennan Bernardino
Carrasco (0-1, 3.55 ERA) makes his 4th start of the season. He has a 1.66 WHIP, 6.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 12 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 5 BB, 2 K in 3-2 home loss to New York Yankees Saturday
- 2024 road splits: 0-0, 4.50 ERA (8 IP, 4 ER), 7 H, 4 BB, 9 K, .241 opponent batting average (OBA) in 2 starts
Bernardino (0-1, 1.69 ERA) makes his 1st start and 5th appearance of the season. He has a 0.75 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 13.5 K/9 in 5 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 1 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 2 K as an opener in a 13-1 home loss vs. Toronto Blue Jays on Aug. 6, 2023
- Career vs. Guardians: 1-1, 1.59 ERA (5 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 3 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 6 relief appearances
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Guardians at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:40 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Red Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-185) | Red Sox -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Guardians at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 5, Red Sox 4
Moneyline
The GUARDIANS (+105) are worth a look at plus-money as Cleveland looks to get back on track after Wednesday’s shutout loss.
Cleveland has posted an impressive 9-3 road record. The Guardians have lost consecutive road games just once (March 31-April 1) so far this season. They had won 6 road games in a row until Wednesday’s loss.
The Red Sox (-125) have managed just 3 victories in 9 tries at Fenway Park, and that isn’t likely to change with the opener Bernardino on the hill — before he turns it over the bullpen.
Run line/Against the spread
The Red Sox +1.5 (-185) aren’t worth playing. The -185 juice is too much the little insurance of a run and a half.
PASS.
Over/Under
UNDER 9.5 (-115) is a good play in this matinee series finale.
The Under is on a 5-1 run for the Red Sox, including 2-1 in the first 3 games of this series.
For the Guardians, the Over-Under has split 3-3 in the past 6 games. The Under has cashed in 4 of the past 5 games on the road, too.
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