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The Cleveland Guardians (12-5) and Boston Red Sox (9-9) play the 3rd contest of a 4-game series Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Guardians lead 2-0 after posting wild 10-7 victory in 11 innings Tuesday as slight underdogs (+106) with Over (8.5) easily cashing
The Guardians have unexpectedly fired out to a 12-5 start, which gives them the best record in baseball at the moment. Their success has been aided by an ability to win on the road as Cleveland is 9-2 away from home, while posting a plus-38 run differential, 2nd-best in the majors behind the equally surprising Kansas City Royals (+39).
The Red Sox have been tripped up in 6 of the past 8 games as the pitching has conceded at least 6 runs in each of the 6 losses. The Under is 4-1 in the past 5, though, as the offense has cobbled together just 3.8 runs per game (RPG), including a pair of shutout losses.
Guardians at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Ben Lively vs. RHP Tanner Houck
Lively (4-7, 5.38 ERA in 2023 with Cincinnati) makes his 1st start of 2024. He had a 1.36 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 88 2/3 innings last season.
- Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 13 ER, 13 H (4 HR), 2 BB, 2 K in 20-9 road loss at Chicago Cubs Aug. 1, 2023 for Cincinnati
- 2023 road splits: 2-5, 5.90 ERA, 50.1 IP, 33 ER, 62 H, 9 BB, 40 K in 6 starts and 5 relief appearances
Houck (2-1, 2.04 ERA) makes his 4th start of the season. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 1.0 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 17 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 7 R (4 ER), 12 H (1 HR), 0 BB, 2 K in 7-0 home setback to Los Angeles Angels Friday
- Career vs. Guardians: 0-1, 3.52 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 10 H, 4 BB, 14 K in 2 starts and 5 relief appearances
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Guardians at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:11 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Red Sox -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-175) | Red Sox -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Guardians at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 7, Guardians 4
Moneyline
The RED SOX (-130) are a good play as moderate favorites against the surprising Guardians (+110).
After the season-ending injury to RHP Shane Bieber, and a doubleheader with the New York Yankees, the Guardians had to get creative with the starting rotation. Lively gets the nod here in his 1st start — coming off the 10-day injury list due to an illness — to make his Cleveland debut. It might be a bit rocky.
Run line/Against the spread
The RED SOX -1.5 (+140) are worth a look on the run line, as they try to turn things around and avoid slipping under .500. The Guardians have won the first 2 in the set, but they turn to the unproven Lively who was pounded last season, pitching for the Reds. He is likely to show some rust since it’s his 1st start of 2024, and the expectation is that Boston’s offense jumps on him early.
Divvy up 1½ UNITS between the 2 wagers — Boston ML and Boston RL — as you see fit.
Over/Under
OVER 8.5 (-115) is the play here with Lively being the driving factor.
He hasn’t pitched in a meaningful game since last summer — while with another organization. Expect nerves to be rampant as he debuts for his new team in a tough pitcher’s park.
In addition, while Houck pitched well in his first 3 starts, he is coming off a rough outing against the Halos, so the Guardians should be able to get to him.
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