No. 24 Clemson (4-2, 3-1 ACC) will stay on the road Saturday for a cross-division matchup with No. 23 Pittsburgh (5-1, 2-0). Kickoff from Heinz Field is set for 3:30 p.m. The game will be televised by ESPN.
Clemson’s offense vs. Pittsburgh’s defense: Name an area, and Clemson’s offense is probably struggling in it. And it doesn’t figure to get any easier against an attacking defense like Pitt’s.
While the Panthers’ high-flying offense is getting most of the headlines, the defense has quietly put together a solid season. Pitt is ranked in the top 35 nationally in points allowed (20 per game), yards allowed (319.3) and rush defense (100.2).
Pitt operates out of a 4-3 under head coach Pat Narduzzi, who came to the Panthers seven years after a successful stint as Michigan State’s defensive coordinator, One of Narduzzi’s trademarks is cover 4 (or quarters) coverage on the back end that can look like man since Narduzzi likes to play press coverage with his corners. That could create some isolated matchups in the passing game if the Tigers can occupy Pitt’s safeties, but that’s going to require Clemson to run the ball effectively.
That’s something the Tigers have done better with at times. Kobe Pace is averaging 6.3 yards a carry over the last two games, but can another starting five on the offensive line open up enough running lanes against an aggressive Pitt defense averaging more than seven tackles for loss?
And can Clemson simply make the plays that are there to be made? Because that’s been as big an issue as any. Missed blocking assignments (both up front and on the perimeter), dropped passes and penalties continue to plague an offense that just doesn’t have much room for error. It’s made any sort of rhythm virtually impossible for the Tigers’ offense to attain. Advantage: Pitt
Clemson’s defense vs. Pitt’s offense: This is the highly anticipated matchup. Only Coastal Carolina and Ohio State are scoring more points on average in the FBS than Pitt (48.3). Meanwhile, top-ranked Georgia is the only team giving up fewer points than Clemson (12.3).
Did the Tigers hint at how they plan to defend Kenny Pickett and the Panthers last week? Clemson played more odd fronts than they have all season against Syracuse, a strange strategy considering the Orange’s strengths running the ball. It appeared defensive coordinator Brent Venables was willing to give up a few chunk plays on the ground knowing Syracuse couldn’t consistently beat Clemson through the air out of that look.
That won’t be the case this week. Pitt has been pretty balanced with its play calls (244 rush, 223 pass), but the Panthers have been explosive and efficient when they’ve put the ball in the air. Pickett is completing right at 70% of his passes for an offense averaging 358 passing yards per game. Pickett’s averaging completion covers 13.5 yards.
Pitt often utilizes 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end), but the Panthers aren’t shy about putting four receivers on the field or even going empty. That’s why Clemson could opt to put more defensive backs on the field, but regardless how they do it, the Tigers will need to generate pressure to get Pickett out of his comfort zone.
Being as close to full strength as possible would also help Clemson, particularly at corner. Andrew Booth (hamstring) missed last week’s game while Fred Davis (ankle) has yet to suit up this month, but Clemson coach Dabo Swinney is optimistic about both playing Saturday. Advantage: Draw
Special teams: Clemson’s specialists continued to come up big against Syracuse. Will Spiers completed a pass for a first down on a fake punt to extend a drive late in the first half that ultimately finished in the end zone. He’s also averaging 42.2 yards per punt.
And B.T. Potter keeps connecting on field goals Clemson has needed to keep pulling out these white-knucklers. His 40-yarder in the fourth quarter proved to be the difference in Clemson’s three-point win. Halfway through the season, his lone miss is still that 58-yarder against South Carolina State that would’ve been a career-long.
Pitt hasn’t had to use its kicker much given the frequency with which it’s found the end zone, but Sam Scarlton is 4-for-4 on field goals. Kirk Christodoulou is averaging 41 yards per punt. The Panthers are averaging just 18.9 yards on kickoff returns and 4.4 yards on punt returns. Advantage: Clemson
Bottom line: Even if injuries don’t have Clemson playing at the same suffocating level it was early in the season, the Tigers’ defense has proven it’s good enough to keep them in every game. But even if Clemson is able to hold Pitt to half of its season scoring average, that would still put the Panthers’ point total in the mid-to-high 20s. Based on what the Tigers have shown offensively to this point, there’s no reason to think they can score that much.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 28, Clemson 17