The 2021-22 NBA regular season starts Tuesday when the Milwaukee Bucks host the Brooklyn Nets and the Golden State Warriors meet the Los Angeles Lakers. Below, we look at the 2021-22 NBA Award lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Last year was a COVID-altered, 72-game truncated season in the NBA. The Milwaukee Bucks defeated the Phoenix Suns in the NBA Finals and Giannis Antetokounmpo brought home the NBA Finals MVP.
The major regular-season award winners include Nikola Jokic (Most Valuable Player), LaMelo Ball (Rookie of the Year), Jordan Clarkson (Sixth Man of the Year), Rudy Gobert (Defensive Player of the Year) and Tom Thibodeau (Coach of the Year).
2021-22 NBA Award Predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 10:30 a.m. ET.
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Most Valuable Player
The NBA MVP rarely comes out of nowhere so it would be foolhardy to bet someone with 20-to-1 or greater odds. Personally, I think Kevin Durant (+550) is the best player in the game and has the best case to win this year’s MVP. However, KD’s MVP payout isn’t fat enough to take a stab in my opinion, but here’s a couple of guys I’ll sprinkle on.
James Harden, Brooklyn Nets (+1500)
Harden’s production in Brooklyn was absurd. “The Beard” averaged 24.6 points per game (PPG) on 61.9% true shooting (.471/.366/.856) with 10.9 assists per game (APG) in 36 games.
His APG would’ve been second in the NBA had he played the minimum number of games and he ranked 10th in both PER and Win Shares per 48 minutes.
Harden won the 2017-18 MVP so it’s not a stretch to think he can do it again. He’s already proven he can carry a team to 50-plus wins and his workload has already increased before the season started.
Brooklyn sitting Kyrie Irving until he’s vaccinated means the ball will be in Harden’s hands more. If Kyrie is out for the foreseeable future and/or KD misses 10-plus regular-season games then Harden at 15-to-1 is a bargain.
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics (+2000)
People are sleeping on the Boston Celtics this year because of their disappointing 2020-21 season but I’m expecting a bounce-back performance from the Celtics. Boston hiring a new head coach but keeping its young core will help Tatum have the best year of his career.
Even though Boston struggled last year Tatum was fantastic. He averaged career-highs in PPG (26.4), rebounds per game (7.4), assists per game (4.3) and PER (21.3). If the Celtics are going to return to the Eastern Conference Finals then they need Tatum to take another step — and he can.
Few NBA teams were hit harder with COVID-19 complications last year than Boston. In fact, Tatum missed five games in the middle of January after testing positive for COVID. This year’s COVID situation should be easier for the Celtics to navigate and Boston can easily be the third-best team in the East.
Several things need to go right but Jayson Tatum (+2000) could be a nice bet slip in your portfolio at the end of the season.
Rookie of the Year
Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons (+240)
This is another award that tends to have a chalky outcome. Most of the previous Rookie of the Year winners were high draft picks that went on to be multiple-time All-Stars. While it isn’t a hot take to predict the No. 1 overall pick will be the real deal, betting Cunningham to win this award is the only way to go.
The last four Rookie of the Year award winners were all ball-dominant point guards. Where those players’ teams finished in the standings doesn’t matter as much as their usage.
The odds on favorite to win this award — Houston Rockets’ Jalen Green (+220) — already has a ball-dominant teammate in the starting 5. However, Detroit will hand the keys to its offense right over to Cunningham. He’s a 6-foot-8 guard with a high basketball IQ and the ability to shoot it from anywhere.
Typically I’m shopping for chunky payouts when betting futures but I still see value in Cade Cunningham (+240) to win Rookie of the Year.
Sixth Man of the Year
Patty Mills, Brooklyn Nets (+1300)
KD and Harden can’t score all the points. Plus the attention each player draws from opposing defenses will create a ton of open looks for teammates. One of the benefactors of said open shots should be first-year Nets guard Mills who has been a knockdown 3-point shooter for years.
Brooklyn head coach Steve Nash has Mike D’Antoni on his staff and D’Antoni is a point guard guru. Nash won back-to-back MVPs while playing for D’Antoni and Harden won his MVP in D’Antoni’s offense.
Mills has been a fringe contender for this award while playing for the San Antonio Spurs from 2011-21 but has a much better chance this season as part of a dynamic Brooklyn offense with title aspirations.
Defensive Player of the Year
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (+700)
There isn’t a lot that needs to be said to sell Antetokounmpo’s line to win Defensive Player of the Year. Giannis is the only player not named “Rudy Gobert” to win this award in the last four seasons.
Giannis can switch on defense to guard any player in NBA history and has the size, length, footwork and quickness to stay in front of ball-handlers or wrestle in the post with bigs.
Several NBA talking heads and writers have mentioned how locked-in Giannis appears to be on Milwaukee’s title defense. Generally, it’s assumed that a title team’s leading scorer will conserve energy on the defensive end of the floor, but in this case, I just don’t see that happening.
Coach of the Year
Monty Williams, Phoenix Suns (+1000)
Williams had a strong case for winning this award last season after Phoenix’s epic turnaround. The Suns went from 34-39 overall two years ago (10th-place in the West) to 51-21 overall last season (second-place in the West).
The reasons Williams didn’t win Coach of the Year were Thibodeau taking an even bigger dumpster fire in the New York Knicks to the playoffs and Suns first-year point guard Chris Paul stealing some of Williams’ shine.
However, there’s value in Williams this season because I think the NBA media tries to make up for not selecting Williams as Coach of the Year last season.
Phoenix’s roster from last year is fully intact and the West is a little weakened entering the season. The Golden State Warriors will be without Klay Thompson until at least Christmas and who knows when the Los Angeles Clippers will get Kawhi Leonard back.
If the Suns are a top-3 seed in the West again, head coach Monty Williams is in the driver’s seat to win Coach of the Year.
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