The No. 16 Iowa Hawkeyes (10-3) meet the No. 20 Kentucky Wildcats (9-3) Saturday in the Citrus Bowl. The kickoff at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla., is set for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Iowa vs. Kentucky odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Iowa won four straight en route to a Big Ten West division crown and an appearance in the Big Ten Championship where the Hawkeyes were shellacked by the Michigan Wolverines 42-3.
The Hawkeyes are led by junior RB Tyler Goodson who has the fourth-most all scrimmage yards in the Big Ten at 1,398. However, Goodson opted out of the Citrus Bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft. Iowa is 7-6 ATS and 6-7 O/U with the 18th-toughest schedule, according to USA TODAY’s Jeff Sagarin.
Kentucky finished second in the SEC East (behind the No.3 Georgia Bulldogs) and have won three straight following a three-game losing skid entering its bowl game.
The Wildcats are led by junior RB Christopher Rodriguez Jr. who rushed for the second-most yards in the SEC (1,271) and junior transfer QB Will Levis, who was sixth in the conference in passer efficiency rating (149.4). Kentucky is 8-4 ATS and 8-4 O/U with the 69th-toughest schedule (Sagarin).
The Big Ten is 5-0 overall in bowl games thus far while the SEC is 1-5 overall. Both programs have won three straight bowl games.
Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Iowa vs. Kentucky odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Iowa +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Kentucky -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Iowa +2.5 (+100) | Kentucky -2.5 (-125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 44.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Iowa vs. Kentucky odds, lines, picks and predictions
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Prediction
Kentucky 24, Iowa 16
Money line
BET 1 unit on KENTUCKY (-155) because both teams like to play a hard-nosed, physical brand of football by the Wildcats are much more efficient than the Hawkeyes.
For instance, Kentucky has a positive net non-garbage time predicted points added (PPA) and ranks fifth in third-down conversion rate. While Iowa has a negative net non-garbage time PPA and ranks 108th in third-down conversion rate.
Furthermore, the Wildcats have a plus-1.3 yards per play differential and a plus-3.3% net Havoc rate while the Hawkeyes have a minus-0.2 yards per play differential and a minus-2.4% net Havoc rate.
More importantly, I don’t see how Iowa executes offensively without Goodson and with senior QB Spencer Petras, who’s 10th in the Big Ten in passer efficiency rating, battling a shoulder injury.
BET KENTUCKY (-155).
Against the spread
PASS since the Wildcats’ money line is only 30 cents on the dollar more expensive than Kentucky -2.5 (-125).
For what it’s worth, Kentucky has been steamed up from a 1.5-point underdog on the opener, presumably based on the news of Goodson opting out.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 44.5 (-115) for 1 unit because Iowa will be the second-best defense Kentucky has faced (behind Georgia) this season, and the Wildcats have a minus-13 turnover differential whereas the Hawkeyes are plus-14 in turnover differential.
In fact, Kentucky has the fourth-worst offensive turnover rate whereas Iowa has the sixth-best defensive turnover rate, according to Football Outsiders. So there could be a bunch of long, empty possessions for the Wildcats.
Also, the UNDER 44.5 (-115) has been hit by sharp money, which has steamed the total down from the 45-point opener.
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