The Cincinnati Reds (48-75) and Washington Nationals (42-83) will play the final 3 games of their season series this weekend, beginning with Game 1 on Friday. First pitch from Nationals Park will be at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Nationals lead 3-1
The Reds are currently riding a 4-game losing streak after getting swept by the Philadelphia Phillies. The offense has been putting runs across, 31 in the last 6 games, but the pitching staff has allowed 22 runs in the last 4.
The Nationals snapped their 3-game losing streak Wednesday by beating the Mariners on the road 3-1. The Nationals haven’t scored more than 3 runs in their last 4 games and rank 26th in the league in runs scored this season.
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Reds at Nationals projected starters
LHP Mike Minor vs. RHP Cade Cavalli
Minor (2-10, 6.44 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.61 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 72 2/3 IP.
- Had lost 10 starts in a row before beating the Pirates on Sunday – despite allowing 5 R in 5 2/3 IP
- Has allowed at least 3 runs in 11 of his 14 starts this season, including 3 straight starts with at least 4 ER allowed
Cavalli (0-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his 1st career start. He had a 3.71 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 97 IP at Triple-A this season.
- The 24-year-old is Washington’s top pitching prospect and he’ll make his MLB debut against the Reds
- In 44 career starts in the minors, he went 13-3 with a 3.51 ERA and 11.4 K/9.
Reds at Nationals odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:42 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Reds +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Nationals -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-170) | Nationals -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Reds at Nationals picks and predictions
Prediction
Nationals 5, Reds 3
Money line
The Reds are tough to trust right now, having lost 4 games in a row and now with Minor on the mound. He’s had just 1 quality start all year and has looked especially shaky in his last 2 starts, allowing a combined 19 hits in 10 2/3 innings.
Even with a rookie on the mound, I like the NATIONALS (-150) to win this game at home, extending the Reds losing streak to 5 games.
Run line/Against the spread
Neither the Reds nor the Nationals are above .500 against the spread this season, and the Reds only covered the spread once in their 4-game series with the Phillies.
The Nationals have at least been keeping games close when they do lose, with each of their last 5 losses coming by 2 runs or fewer – and winning 3 games by at least 2 runs in that same span.
Bet the NATIONALS -1.5 (+135) to cover the spread against a bad pitcher, which could jumpstart the offense.
Over/Under
As poorly as Minor is pitching right now, and even with a debutant on the bump for the Nationals, I don’t think this will be a terribly high-scoring game. The Nationals offense is struggling and Cavalli could have some success against Cincinnati.
I like the UNDER 8.5 (-102) tonight.
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