The Cincinnati Reds (20-25) visit the nation’s capital Tuesday to start a three-game set with the Washington Nationals (20-23) at Nationals Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Cincinnati, which is 3-8 in its last 11 games, lost back-to-back games to the Milwaukee Brewers to drop its previous series 2-1 after being swept in a four-game series by the San Francisco Giants.
Washington swept the Baltimore Orioles in a three-game series this past weekend and has won seven of the past 11 games.
Season series: 0-0.
RHP Tyler Mahle is on the hill for the Reds. Mahle is 2-2 with a 4.20 ERA (45 IP, 21 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 across nine starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 19-4, in 2 IP with 7 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 2 K vs. the Giants Thursday.
- Career vs. the Nationals: 1-1 with a 12.15 ERA (6 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 2.10 WHIP and 12.2 K/9 over two starts.
- Vs. Nationals on the current roster: 61 at-bats with a .295/.413/.525 slash line, 15/11 K/BB, 4 HR and 14 RBIs.
RHP Max Scherzer is the projected starter for the Nationals. Scherzer is 4-2 with a 2.24 ERA (56 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 0.85 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 12.1 K/9 across nine starts.
- Last outing: Win, 4-3, in 5 IP with 2 ER, 5 H, 4 BB and 8 K Wednesday at the Chicago Cubs.
- Career vs. the Reds: 5-1 with a 2.01 ERA (44 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 0.90 WHIP and 13.7 K/9 over seven starts.
- Vs. Reds on the current roster: 101 at-bats with a .158/.234/.287 slash line, 45/9 K/BB, 3 HR and 9 RBIs.
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Reds at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:39 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Reds +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Nationals -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-145) | Nationals -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Nationals 8, Reds 1
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Nationals (-175) since I’d entertain throwing Washington’s money line into a parlay with another similarly priced favorite for a plus-money payout.
However, outright I’m going to stay away because of how inconsistent Washington’s lineup has been thus far and 2021 baseball being a three-outcome sport (walk, strikeout or home run).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET the NATIONALS -1.5 (+120) for 1 unit because of their overwhelming starting pitching edge and their lineup should be able to add to any lead against Cincinnati’s weak bullpen.
Scherzer’s basic pitching numbers against this Cincinnati lineup are awesome and his advanced pitching numbers are even more impressive.
Statcast tracked 45 plate appearances by Reds on the current roster vs. Scherzer and he has an absurd 51.1% strikeout rate with a 1.58 FIP and .223 wOBA.
Mahle’s advanced pitching numbers vs. this Washington roster is even more worrisome than his basic stats.
Mahle has a 6.68 FIP with a .385 wOBA and just a 20.8% strikeout rate against the Nationals (72 plate appearances).
Furthermore, Cincinnati relievers are 23rd in both WAR and SIERA, 22nd in home runs allowed per nine innings and 28th in xFIP.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a “lean” to the Under 7.5 (-105) despite what my predicted score is because Scherzer is on the mound and Washington has the highest Under percentage. However, Cincinnati has the highest Over percentage.
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