The Cincinnati Reds (35-33) visit the San Diego Padres (40-32) Saturday at Petco Park for the third game of their four-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego clobbered Cincinnati Friday 8-2 as the first four Padres hitters combined to go 7-for-17 with 3 doubles, 1 home run and 5 RBIs.
Season series: Padres lead 2-0.
RHP Vladimir Gutiérrez makes his fifth career start for the Reds. He is 3-1 with a 2.74 ERA (23 IP, 7 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in his rookie season.
- Last outing: Win, 10-2, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 6 K Monday at the Milwaukee Brewers.
RHP Miguel Díaz is the projected starter for the Padres. Díaz is 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA (20 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 over one start and 10 relief appearances.
- Last outing: Diaz appeared in relief duty with 1 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 BB and 2 K in San Diego’s 3-2 loss Monday at the Colorado Rockies.
- Diaz hasn’t pitched more than three innings in any outing this season and this move was made by the Padres to re-align their rotation for an upcoming series with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
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Reds at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:41 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Reds +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Padres -165 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-140) | Padres -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Reds 5, Padres 3
Money line (ML)
It’s a “bullpen day” for the Padres (-165) who are quite literally planning ahead for the Dodgers next week.
This could be a mistake for this game because the REDS (+140) have a solid lineup and Gutiérrez is a promising young pitcher who hasn’t surrendered more than two earned runs in a start this season.
For instance, Cincinnati’s lineup ranks in the top-10 of advanced hitting metrics such as wRC+, wOBA and BB/K rate.
Also, Gutiérrez grades in the 85th percentile or better in expected opponent’s wOBA, expected slugging percentage and hard-hit rate.
“LEAN” to the REDS (+140) for a half unit because I like Cincinnati’s First 5 Innings run line price as well.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the REDS +0.5 (-110) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit since we get a half-run worth of insurance for Gutiérrez who’s pitched at least five innings in each start and gave up just one earned run in his one loss this year.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 8.5 (+100) since it’s priced at even money. San Diego’s lineup has been a little underwhelming thus far but the Padres relievers make up a top-tier bullpen.
However, I’d rather consolidate my Reds-Padres budget to the Cincinnati side and not throw money at the total.
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