The Cincinnati Reds (35-31) and San Diego Padres (38-32) match up Thursday for the opener of a four-game series. First pitch is set for 8:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Wade Miley is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 6-4 with a 2.92 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 61 2/3 IP over 11 starts. Miley will kick off the series, the first of the season between these two teams. Miley, who tossed a no-hitter earlier in the season, allowed just 3 earned runs in his last 18 innings.
RHP Joe Musgrove is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. He is 4-6 with a 2.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 12.0 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 72 IP over 12 starts and one relief appearance. Musgrove’s record does not do him justice. His 96 strikeouts are tied for 16th in the majors. However, Musgrove has given up at least 3 earned runs in each of his last two starts.
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Reds at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Reds +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Padres -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-145) | Padres -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Reds 5, Padres 4
Money line (ML)
BET the Reds (+145) because one of these teams is on fire and the other isn’t. It’s that simple. The Reds have won six straight, sweeping the Milwaukee Brewers on the road after sweeping the Colorado Rockies in Cincy. They Reds have won 13 of their last 16.
The Padres have lost 7 of their last 8.
Along those lines, the Reds still have the worst bullpen ERA, but over the last week, they rank within the top five in reliever ERA. That’s a huge note as the Reds have been killed late in games this season.
For the Padres to come out on top, they’ll need a stellar performance from Musgrove, who has reached double-figure in strikeouts four times this season.
The momentum is with Reds (+145), and as underdogs, they have the best value.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS. Despite losing five of their last six, the Padres have lost just two of those by more than one run.
They have kept games close, and that doesn’t bode well for San Diego -1.5 (+120). Along those lines, the Reds have the momentum, and the better value is betting they win than betting they lose by one.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the OVER 7.5 (-105). Both starting pitchers have dominant performances this season, but each has struggled at times as well.
The Reds hitting is starting to come around. LF Jesse Winker and RF Nick Castellanos rank first and third, respectively, in OPS in the National League.
For the Padres, they’ve been led by SS Fernando Tatís Jr. He leads the NL in home runs (21), is tied for the league lead in stolen bases and is second in RBIs (48).
The Reds have scored 10 or more runs in three of their last six games, while the Padres have averaged 5 runs per game over their last four.
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