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The Minnesota Twins (78-68) welcome the Cincinnati Reds (71-77) to Target Field for the 1st of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Reds vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Twins won 2 of 3 games in 2023
The Reds lost to the St. Louis Cardinals 6-1 Thursday, closing as a +124 underdog. They have lost 2 straight games after winning 3 in a row. Cincinnati is 7-4 of its last 11 and is 35-38 on the road. It has allowed just 9 runs in his last 5 games. The Reds are 82-66 against the spread (ATS).
The Twins beat the Los Angeles Angels 6-4 Wednesday, closing as a -215 home favorite. They have won 2 straight games, but are just 3-6 over their last 9. Minnesota has been held to 2 or fewer runs in 4 of its last 6 games. It is 41-31 at home and 66-80 ATS.
Reds at Twins projected starters
RHP Julian Aguiar vs. RHP Bailey Ober
Aguiar (1-0, 5.06 ERA) makes his 6th career start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 4.6 K/9 in 21 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 3-1 home win over the New York Mets Sunday
- 2024 away stats: 1-0, 2.45 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 0.96 WHIP, 4.9 K/9 in 3 starts
- First time facing Twins
Ober (12-6, 3.77 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 155 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 4-2 road loss to the Kansas City Royals Saturday
- 2024 home stats: 7-2, 3.80 ERA (66 1/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 in 12 starts
- Career vs. Reds: 0-0, 5.79 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 4.8 K/9 in 2 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Reds at Twins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 10:20 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Reds +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Twins -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-115) | Twins -1.5 (-104)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Reds at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 4, Reds 3
Moneyline
PASS.
The moneyline doesn’t offer great value. The Reds aren’t worth a moneyline play to pull off the upset, and the Twins are far too expensive to take to win outright. Avoid this wager.
Run line/Against the spread
BET REDS +1.5 (-115).
Cincinnati is the best road-covering team in the majors. It is 47-26 ATS as the away side. The Reds have had 2 games in their last 4 end within 1 run. They are 4-3 ATS in their last 7 road games, all closing as a moneyline underdog.
While Ober has been a strong option for most of the season, the Twins are just 1-3 in his last 4 starts and have gotten little going offensively over the last week. They have scored 4 or fewer runs in 9 straight and 2 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 6.
Considering those offensive concerns, back the underdog and take REDS +1.5 (-115).
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-115).
The Twins have gone Under in 3 of their last 6 games and are 3-2-1 O/U in that span. They have given up 15 runs in their last 3 games, but do have an ace in Ober on the mound. The Twins have gone Under in his last 2 starts.
The Reds have gone Under in 6 straight games and are 68-74-6 O/U on the season. They have scored 3 or fewer in 6 straight and allowed just 8 in their last 4 games. Play UNDER 8.5 (-120).
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