The Kansas City Royals (18-49) host the Cincinnati Reds (33-35) for the final of their 3-game series Wednesday. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is set for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Reds lead 2-0
The Reds won the 1st 2 games of the series by 5-4 scores and have won 7 of their last 9 games and 4 straight on the road. They are 16-17 on the road this season.
With the Oakland Athletics on a winning streak, the Royals are now the worst team in the MLB. They are just 9-25 at home. Kansas City has lost 8 straight games and, with a loss Wednesday, will have been swept in 3 straight series.
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Reds at Royals projected starters
RHP Ben Lively vs. LHP Daniel Lynch
Lively (3-4, 4.21 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 36 1/3 innings.
- Is in his 1st season in Cincinnati; pitched for Royals in 2018-19
- Last start: 6 2/3 IP, 10 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 8 K in 7-4 loss against the St. Louis Cardinals on June 9
Lynch (0-2, 4.41 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.47 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 16 1/3 innings.
- Royals are 1-2 in his 3 starts
- Has gone over 5 IP with 3 or less ER in each start
Reds at Royals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 9:20 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Reds -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Royals -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds -1.5 (+140) | Royals +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Reds at Royals picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 5, Royals 3
Moneyline
BET REDS (-115).
Simply put, the Reds are playing far better than the Royals. With both games ending 5-4 over the last 2 days, playing Cincinnati on the run line doesn’t make much sense. The talent is there, and the consistency is coming.
For the Royals, this isn’t a position they have performed well in. They are 13-35 following a loss and have the worst home record in the MLB. They are just 6-14 as a home underdog as well.
Do not expect Kansas City to bounce back here and BET REDS (-115) to close out the series.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There just isn’t much value here, especially with both games having ended within a run. An argument can be made for both teams here, and I’d stick to the moneyline odds.
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Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-120).
While the Reds have been profitable on the Over this season, they have gone Under in 2 of their last 3 games, and both games in this series would have gone Under this total.
KC is 21-25-1 O/U following a loss as well, which it is in this instance. Ultimately, considering the trends, back the UNDER 9.5 (-120).
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