The Cincinnati Reds (17-19) play the Colorado Rockies (15-24) in the third of their four-game series Saturday at Coors Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Rockies lead 2-0.
RHP Tyler Mahle is getting the start for the Reds. Mahle is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA (36 IP, 12 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 12.0 K/9 over 7 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 14-1, in 5 1/3 IP with 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 7 K Monday at the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- Career vs. the Rockies: 0-1 with a 7.53 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 2.09 WHIP and 7.5 K/9 across 3 starts.
- Vs. Rockies on the current roster: 42 at-bats with a .357/.386/.500 slash line, 8/2 K/BB, 0 HR and 5 RBIs.
- Career at Coors Field: 0-1 with a 9.64 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 2.36 WHIP and 5.8 K/9 over 2 starts.
RHP Jhoulys Chacin is the projected starter for the Rockies. Chacin is 0-1 with a 5.84 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.78 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9 and 5.1 BB/9 across 6 appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision in 3 1/3 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 0 K in Colorado’s 12-4 loss to the San Francisco Giants on May 4.
- Career vs. the Reds: 3-1 with a 2.60 ERA (27 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.12 WHIP and 7.5 K/9 over 5 starts.
- Vs. Reds on the current roster: 96 at-bats with a .260/.345/.458 slash line, 25/11 K/BB, 4 HR and 15 RBIs.
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Reds at Rockies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:40 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Reds -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Rockies +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
- Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (-125) | Rockies +1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 11 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Rockies 9, Reds 7
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the ROCKIES (+150) for a tiny wager only because Colorado’s run line is a sharper wager and the Rockies have an edge in the pitching matchup today.
Furthermore, Colorado’s money line has a higher handle whereas Cincinnati has way more bets placed on its money line, which leads me to believe that the Rockies’ money is “sharp” and the “average Joe” is backing the Reds.
Chacin’s advanced pitching numbers vs. the Reds’ lineup is far more impressive than Mahle’s against the Rockies.
For instance, Chacin has a 23.3 strikeout rate, .256 expected wOBA and .291 expected slugging percentage vs. current Reds hitters while Mahle has a 17.1% strikeout rate, .364 expected wOBA and .473 expected slugging percentage vs. current Rockies hitters.
Also, the Reds relievers have the third-worst xFIP, fourth-worst SIERA and the second-worst left-on-base percentage.
Colorado’s bullpen ranks near Cincinnati’s in all those metrics, but if there isn’t a whole lot of difference between the two ‘pens and Mahle gets drilled by Colorado then the ROCKIES (+150) becomes juicier.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Definitely BET the ROCKIES +1.5 (+105) heavier than or instead of Colorado’s money line. We are still getting a plus-money payout here
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 11 (-105) for a one-third unit because I have no faith in either starter or bullpen, the Reds have gone Over in six of Mahle’s seven starts this season and Colorado has gone Over in eight of its last 10 home games.
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