The Cincinnati Reds (17-17) and Colorado Rockies (13-24) kick off a four-game series Thursday at 8:40 p.m. ET at Coors Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Luis Castillo is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 1-4 with a 6.42 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 33 2/3 IP over seven starts. Castillo hasn’t been his usual self in 2021, and has allowed 4 ER or more four times. Most of his ERA estimators aren’t great but are a couple runs below his actual ERA as he’s been hurt by a .357 BABIP and 54% LOB%.
RHP Chi Chi Gonzalez is the projected starting pitcher for the Rockies. He has made five starts and two relief appearances, and is 1-1 with a 5.97 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 4.7 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 28 2/3 IP. Gonzalez has been roughed up to the tune of 11 ER in 8 2/3 IP in his last two starts, both of which came on the road. He boasts a 4.89 career ERA in 13 games (nine starts) at Coors Field, along with a 7.1 K/9 and 1.4 HR/9.
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Reds at Rockies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:34 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Reds -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Rockies +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (-110) | Rockies +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 11 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Reds 8, Rockies 5
Money line (ML)
Since joining the Rockies in 2019, Gonzalez has put up a dreadful 5.74 ERA across 111 1/3 IP. The team has lost four of his five starts so far this season. Cincinnati’s bats should enjoy a big game against him Thursday evening.
It’s tough to put too much faith in Castillo given his struggles in his first seven outings. But there’s no doubt he has been unlucky to this point and is clearly the better pitcher in this game. So, take the REDS -160.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Reds have the highest implied run total in the league. They could knock Gonzalez out of the game pretty early. Even if it’s a close game late, as the road team, they could still break it open like they did Wednesday at the Pittsburgh Pirates. Back the REDS -1.5 (-110).
Over/Under (O/U)
There has been an average of 10.3 runs per game scored in 21 contests at Coors Field this year. The Over is 6-2-1 in Cincinnati’s last nine road games and 6-2 in Colorado’s last eight at home.
With neither starter pitching doing very well, there should be plenty of scoring in this game. The total is a high one, but we’ll still lean OVER 11 (-110).
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