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The Cincinnati Reds (24-32) and Chicago Cubs (28-29) kick off a 3-game series Friday at Wrigley Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Reds won 7-6 in 2023
The Reds dropped the final 2 contests of a 3-game set against the St. Louis Cardinals Monday through Wednesday. The Under has cashed in 5 straight games for Cincinnati, while going 8-3 in the past 11 outings.
The Cubs dropped 3 of 4 games in Milwaukee Monday through Thursday, and are 1-7 in the past 8 games. They cashed the Over in each of their previous 3 outings. In fact, Chicago has allowed 47 runs across the past 8 outings, or 5.9 runs per game (RPG).
Cincinnati hits the road following a 5-4 homestand. The Reds went 3-7 in their previous road trip (May 10-19). The Under is 4-2 in their last 6 road contests.
Chicago returns home following a 1-5 road trip through St. Louis and Milwaukee. The Cubs lost their last 2 home games, both to Atlanta, and have lost 3 straight series at Wrigley Field, last winning 2 of 3 against the Milwaukee Brewers May 3-5. The Under is 6-3 in the past 9 games at the Friendly Confines.
The forecast calls for a light breeze blowing from right field to left field at an 8-11 mph clip with temperatures in the mid-60s.
Reds at Cubs projected starters
RHP Graham Ashcraft vs. RHP Javier Assad
Ashcraft (4-3, 4.67 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 54 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K in 9-6 home victory vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 24
- 2024 road splits: 1-2, 2.73 ERA (33 IP, 10 ER), 1.27 WHIP, .242 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 5 HR, 11 BB, 28 K in 6 starts
Assad (4-1, 2.17 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 58 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 HR, 3 BB, 8 K in 4-3 loss at Cardinals Sunday
- 2024 home splits: 2-0, 1.53 ERA (27 IP, 4 ER), 1.19 WHIP, .196 OBA, 2 HR, 13 BB, 21 K in 5 starts
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Reds at Cubs odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:48 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Reds +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Cubs -154 (bet $154 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-164) | Cubs -1.5 (+136)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -114 | U: -106)
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Reds at Cubs picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 4, Reds 3
Moneyline
The CUBS (-154) are a solid play as moderate favorites in the series opener at Wrigley Field, mostly due to Assad. He has been tremendous at home this season, allowing just 4 runs across 27 innings in 5 starts with a minuscule 1.33 ERA.
The Reds (+130) have been getting very good work from Ashcraft, though, especially on the road. So, be careful, and go lightly on the home side in a game which could be well pitched.
Run line/Against the spread
The Reds +1.5 (-164) are a little on the expensive side if you’re looking for some insurance and can’t bring yourself to play Cincinnati straight up.
It’s not worth it. If you like the Reds, just play their moneyline.
PASS.
Over/Under
UNDER 8 (-106) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at best.
Ashcraft has posted solid numbers on the road, while Assad has produced good numbers at home.
While the Over cashed in Chicago’s final 3 games of the Milwaukee series, the Cubs have cashed low in the past 3 starts by Assad, while going 8-1 in his previous 9 appearances.
For the Reds, the Under has hit in 5 straight outings. As far as Ashcraft is concerned, the Over-Under has split 2-2 in the right-hander’s past 4 road assignments.
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