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The Cincinnati Reds (67-61) and Arizona Diamondbacks (66-61) open up a 4-game set at Chase Field Thursday. First pitch is at 9:40 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Reds lead 3-0
The Reds enter the desert on a 3-game winning streak after sweeping the Los Angeles Angels on Tuesday and Wednesday. They are 6-4 over the last 10 games to pull within 3 1/2 games of the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. Cincinnati holds the last NL Wild Card spot and is 36-27 on the road this season.
The Snakes are on fire, winners of 4 in a row and 8 of 10. They are a half-game behind the Reds for that final Wild Card spot, so this will be a huge series for both teams as it is the last time they meet in the regular season. The Diamondbacks are 21-18 against left-handed pitching.
Reds at Diamondbacks projected starters
LHP Brandon Williamson vs. RHP Merrill Kelly
Williamson (4-3, 4.47 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 86 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 6 K Saturday against the Toronto Blue Jays
- 1 career start vs. Diamondbacks: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 5 K July 22
Kelly (10-5, 3.13 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 129 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 3 K Saturday against San Diego Padres
- 4 career starts vs. Reds: 2-1, 3.00 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 20 K in 24 IP
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Reds at Diamondbacks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:57 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Reds +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Diamondbacks -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-140) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Reds at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 4, Reds 3
Moneyline
The Reds are 7-3 across the last 10 meetings with the Diamondbacks, but Arizona has the edge on the mound. Kelly has allowed 4 ER in 17 IP over his last 3 home starts for a 2.12 ERA. Williamson is coming off a rough start against Toronto. With the Diamondbacks at home and on such a hot streak, I will LEAN DIAMONDBACKS (-165), despite the chalk.
Run line/Against the spread
The Reds are 43-20 on the RL on the road, and Arizona is 31-32 against the spread at home. As mentioned, Cincinnati has won 7 of 10 from the D-Backs. I just favor Kelly in this one. We’ll take the run with REDS +1.5 (-140).
Over/Under
The Over is 4-6 for Cincinnati over the last 10 games while the Diamondbacks have gone 5-4-1. The Over is just 3-6-1 over the last 10 meetings between the clubs. Williamson has pitched to 3 straight Unders. Kelly has pitched to Unders in 4 of 5. I’ll LEAN UNDER 9 (-120).
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