The Cincinnati Reds (35-34) hope to pick up a win in the final game of their four-game series against the San Diego Padres (41-32) Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Luis Castillo is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 2-9 with a 5.83 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 71 IP over 14 starts.
The Reds have won two of his last three starts after losing nine of them in a row. He pitched seven scoreless innings Tuesday at Milwaukee in his last outing.
RHP Dinelson Lamet is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. He is 1-2 with a 3.33 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 27 IP over 7 starts and 2 relief appearances.
Lamet has only pitched 5 full innings once this season and the Padres have lost his last three starts.
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Reds at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:07 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Reds +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Padres -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-155) | Padres -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Padres 4, Reds 2
Money line (ML)
The Reds have lost the first three games of this series after winning their six previous outings and had won their last eight road games before going to San Diego.
The Padres entered this series having lost nine of their previous 11 games but have turned it around against the Reds, improving their record to 24-14 at home.
The pitching matchup favors the Padres, as the Reds are 3-11 when Castillo starts. The last time Castillo pitched seven scoreless innings in a start he followed it up in his next start by allowing four runs in five frames.
Take the PADRES (-155).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Reds are only 31-38 ATS this season but are 18-19 ATS on the road. They have not covered the spread in any of the three previous games in this series but had done so in 11 of their previous 13 games. Six of Castillo’s last eight starts have resulted in losses of at least two runs.
The Padres are an even 19-19 ATS at home now that they have covered all three games in this series. Eight of their last nine victories have been by at least two runs.
Take the PADRES -1.5 (+125).
Over/Under (O/U)
Only 44.7% of the games at Petco Park this season have gone Over the projected total.
The Padres’ last five games have hit the Over and while seven of the last 10 for the Reds went Over.
However, I expect a solid pitching performance from Lamet and for the bats to cool on this Sunday afternoon.
Take UNDER 7.5 (+100).
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