The Green Bay Packers (3-1) stop by Paul Brown Stadium Sunday to play the Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) at 1 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Packers vs. Bengals odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Green Bay cruised past the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-17 as a 6.5-point home favorite in Week 4. The Packers have won covered the last three games after their weird 38-3 Week 1 loss to the New Orleans Saints.
Cincy rallied back from a 14-point, first-half deficit to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 24-21 on Thursday Night Football. The Bengals are 2-2 against the spread (ATS), which includes a 24-10 win at the Steelers in Week 3.
Packers at Bengals odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 2:39 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Packers -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Bengals +122 (bet $100 to win $122)
- Against the spread (ATS): Packers -2.5 (-1325) | Bengals +2.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 50.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Packers at Bengals key injuries
Packers
- RB Aaron Jones (ankle) questionable
- LT Elgton Jenkins (toe) questionable
- C Josh Myers (finger) questionable
- CB Kevin King (concussion) questionable
- CB Jaire Alexander (shoulder) questionable
- LB Za’Darius Smith (back) IR-out
Bengals
- RB Joe Mixon (ankle) questionable
- WR Tee Higgins (shoulder) questionable
- C Trey Hopkins (knee) questionable
- RG Xavier Su’a-Filo (knee) questionable
- DT Larry Ogunjobi (knee) questionable
- CB Trae Waynes (knee) questionable
- CB Chidobe Awuzie (groin) questionable
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Packers at Bengals odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Bengals 30, Packers 24
Money line
PASS because the Cincinnati (+122) doesn’t make much sense when Cincy plus the points is still even-money (+100).
Against the spread
BET 1 unit on the BENGALS +2.5 (+100) because there’s “reverse line movement” in Cincy’s direction and the Bengals have been a lot more efficient thus far.
A vast majority of the action is on Green Bay to cover but Cincy has gone from a 3.5-point underdog down to the current price. It’s a red flag whenever sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.
The Bengals have a higher net points per play, yards per play and red zone-scoring differentials. On top of that, Green Bay has a negative expected points added (EPA) differential. And each team has played a similar strength of schedule.
There’s an old-school handicapping angle where you flip the 3-point home field advantage and analyze the game. So, in this case, we’d make the Packers home and add six points to their spread. It would be hard to argue Green Bay laying 8.5 points is a good bet.
I know it seems like the Packers -2.5 (-125) is cheap but the bottom line is Green Bay is overpriced in this spot. TAKE the BENGALS +2.5 (+100).
Over/Under
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 50.5 (-115) for a small wager, if at all, because I much prefer Cincy’s spread and we are getting to the party late.
According to Pregame.com, more than 90% of the action is on the Over, which has caused oddsmakers to move the Packers-Bengals total up from the 48.5-point opener. Perhaps Over 50.5 (-115) is still a winner, but I liked this total a lot more when it was 48.5.
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