Chris Paul-to-the-Knicks rumors date back to as far as 10 years ago when Paul made a toast at Carmelo Anthony’s wedding talking about a Big Three in New York with Anthony and Amare Stoudemire. Once Anthony got moved to the Knicks, Paul reportedly requested a trade there as well in December 2011 after the lockout ended. He later expanded his choice of cities to Los Angeles, and would eventually be traded to the Los Angeles Clippers.
Ten years later, the Knicks could be preparing to make another run at Paul. The almost 35-year old is having another strong year where the Oklahoma City Thunder have greatly exceeded expectations under Paul’s leadership and sit in sixth place in the West with a 39-24 record, only a game and a half behind fourth place. Aside from winning in what was expected to be a rebuilding season, he has been a tremendous backcourt partner with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who picked up a lot from Paul both on and off the court.
Statistically, his points, rebounds, assists, and steals have gradually dropped since 2015-16 while his minutes aren’t significantly lower. While those numbers don’t jump out at you, it’s his impact metrics that speak volumes to his level of play. He currently ranks No. 8 in player impact plus-minus (PIPM). He also ranks ninth in both Win Shares and Offensive Win Shares.
Perhaps the biggest thing for his team is his availability. Paul has played in 62 of 63 games so far in 2019-20, which would be on track to be his healthiest season since 2015-16, when he only missed eight games.
Can the Knicks expect the same level of developmental leadership, production, and availability if they acquire Paul? It’s quite a lot to hope for, but what Paul can mean for the development of their young players alone may be worth the remaining $85.6 million remaining on his contract. RJ Barrett, Kevin Knox, Dennis Smith Jr., and Frank Ntilikina can all improve their offensive facilitation and defense with Paul. The Knicks can’t expect their young players to replicate the strides Gilgeous-Alexander made under Paul, but just learning how to play organized basketball under one of the best floor generals of all-time could have enough value to justify a trade for him.
Acquiring Paul shouldn’t be complicated for the Knicks. They have enough salary-filler to get CP3 and adequate young players and future draft picks to interest the Thunder. The Knicks only need to send out $32.987,051 in salary to acquire Paul’s $41,358,814 cap hit for 2020-21. They can guarantee a combination of Taj Gibson ($9.45 million), Wayne Ellington ($8 million), Elfrid Payton ($8 million), and Reggie Bullock ($4.2 million), and package them with one or two of their young players to reach the minimum outgoing salary amount.
It would be a lot easier if the Knicks maximized their cap space and absorbed Paul into it, only needing to send draft compensation. The Knicks can get to $46 million in cap space this offseason by waiving all their non-guaranteed players except Mitchell Robinson, declining the $15.75 million team option on Bobby Portis, and renouncing all their free agent cap holds. This would also mean forfeiting the Bird rights and early Bird rights of Maurice Harkless and Allonzo Trier, respectively.
The Thunder, who are currently projected to operate over the cap, would be able to generate a traded player exception (TPE) worth Paul’s 2020-21 salary. This would allow them to trade for just about anyone without giving back salary, while also being able to re-sign, or sign-and-trade, Danilo Gallinari through his Bird rights. Alternatively, they could choose to generate close to $50 million in cap space. Getting off Paul’s salary would open up a ridiculous amount of flexibility and roster-building opportunities for the Thunder.
The cap space route would gut the Knicks, however, leaving them only with about half a roster and only about $5 million in cap space, the $5 million room mid-level (R-MLE), and minimum contracts to fill out the rest of the roster. Ideally, they’d like to be as competitive as possible with Paul by keeping one or two of their non-guaranteed players while also being able to make competitive offers to re-sign their own free agents.
If the Knicks have Paul and he opts into his $44.2 million player option for 2021-22, as expected, it would interfere with their 2021 cap space. It is still very early to project for 2021, but they can generate about $66 million in cap space in 2021 and can reach $80 million if they waive Julius Randle, who will only be guaranteed for $4 million. Having Paul would cut those projections in half, making it likely they can only offer one maximum contract instead of two.
The Knicks only signed 1-2 year deals with the free agents they signed in 2019 in hopes of keeping a clean sheet for 2021 free agency. That is the summer when players like Giannis Antentokounmpo, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, and several other All-Stars can all hit the market. If the Knicks feel they have a better shot at signing one of these players with Paul on the roster, then losing one maximum slot may be worth acquiring him if it means actually signing a star with the other.
Although the Knicks certainly have the means and flexibility to acquire Paul, would he still be interested in joining them 10 years later? The Knicks two-decade-long string of dysfunction may have him feeling grateful that he never actually got traded to them. Their most recent public embarrassment involved Knicks fan and longtime season ticket holder Spike Lee, whom Paul showed support for. This cannot bode well for their chances to get him on board with their program.
Of course, Paul cannot veto a trade to the Knicks if he wanted to but he can certainly influence his destination if he voices his displeasure. But if someone on the Knicks could convince Paul to buy in, it would be their new president of basketball operations, Leon Rose, who has represented Paul as his agent in the past.