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The Chicago White Sox (17-52) take on the Seattle Mariners (40-30) Thursday in the finale of a 4-game set at T-Mobile Park at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the White Sox vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mariners lead 3-0
The White Sox got a game-tying homer from OF Luis Robert Jr. in the 9th inning Wednesday, but they lost their 4th straight. The Chi Sox are last in MLB with 3.1 R/game, last with a .217 BA and 29th with a 4.91 ERA.
The M’s have taken the first 3 games of the series 8-4, 4-3 and 2-1 in 10 innings Wednesday. Their bread and butter is their 7th-best 3.51 ERA. They are just tied for 24th with 3.9 runs/game. The scary part is OF Julio Rodriguez has yet to take off with a .268 BA, 5 HR and 25 RBIs, but the team remains 10 games over .500.
White Sox at Mariners projected starters
LHP Garrett Crochet vs. RHP Luis Castillo
Crochet (6-5, 3.33 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 0.93 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and an MLB-leading 12.3 K/9 in 75 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 10 K Friday against Boston Red Sox
- Has never faced Mariners before
- Last 7 starts: 5-1, 1.10 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 56 K’s in 41 IP
Castillo (5-7, 3.35 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 83 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 4 K Saturday against Kansas City Royals
- 3 career starts vs. White Sox: 1-0, 2.33 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 23 K in 19 1/3 IP
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White Sox at Mariners odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:05 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): White Sox +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Mariners -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): White Sox +1.5 (-185) | Mariners -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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White Sox at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
White Sox 4, Mariners 3
Moneyline
Chicago has gone 3-2 in Crochet’s last 5 starts, and for a team that only has 6 wins in its last 30 games, that’s important. Essentially half of the team’s wins over the last month have come with Crochet on the hill. And he has been dominant with 29 K’s in 18 IP over his last 3 GS. Meanwhile, Castillo hasn’t been himself. His 9.2 K/9 is the lowest it has been since 2021.
It’s always risky betting on such a bad team, but I’ll back Crochet and the WHITE SOX +130.
Run line/Against the spread
For as bad of a team as the White Sox are, they don’t strike out a ton. They’re 19th in MLB with 8.55 per game. For reference, the Atlanta Braves are worse with 8.66. Granted, Atlanta pulverizes the ball more than the Chi Sox.
With that said, and with Castillo’s K-rate down, I really like LUIS CASTILLO UNDER 6.5 K’s (+115). He hasn’t topped 6 K’s in 5 straight starts. I’ll take that plus-money to the bank.
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Over/Under
We have a miniscule total here at 6. It makes sense with a couple of talented starters and a couple of bad offenses. There is only 1 play here, and that’s on the Over.
Castillo gave up 5 ER to the Royals last time out and allowed 2+ ER in 6 of 7 starts. Crochet has been dominant, but he hasn’t gone more than 6 IP in 7 starts. We had totals of 12, 7 and 3 in the series thus far. The wind is expected to be blowing in from left-center on a 68-degree evening. However, you have to go with OVER 6 (-120).
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