The Chicago Cubs (35-57) open the second half against the Philadelphia Phillies (49-43) Friday in the 1st of a 3-game set at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: This is their first meeting of the year. Philadelphia won 5-2 last year.
The Cubs limped into the All-Star break as losers of 9 of their last 10 outings. They went 7-3 in the 10-game stretch before that, though. The trade winds will be swirling as we near the Aug. 2 dealing and we anticipate where All-Star C Willson Contreras will be playing. That takes a toll on a young team.
The Phillies hope to start the second half on a high note, and OF Kyle Schwarber would like to put his flame out in the Home Run Derby behind him. Watch him, as well as the other participants tonight, to see if the competition alters their swing path.
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Cubs at Phillies projected starters
LHP Justin Steele vs. RHP Kyle Gibson
Steele (3-6, 4.15 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 82 1/3 IP.
- Has a 2.98 ERA over his last 7 starts.
- Has unfavorable road splits with a 5.86 ERA, 1.52 WHIP away from home vs. 3.29 ERA and 1.35 WHIP at Wrigley Field.
Gibson (5-3, 4.35 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 97 1/3 IP.
- Allowed just 1 ER through 13 IP across his last 2 starts.
- He pitches a little better at home with a 4.01 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 7.5 K/9 vs. 4.73 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 7.3 K/9 on road.
- Current Cubbies are hitting .282 with a .801 OPS in 85 plate appearances against him.
Cubs at Phillies odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:37 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Cubs +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Phillies -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-175) | Phillies -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
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Cubs at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Cubs 3
Money line
Lefties hit .267 against Steele, whereas righties hit .243. With OF Bryce Harper still out, Schwarber is the only left-handed hitter that figures to pose a threat. Schwarbs is hitting just .193 against left-handers with a homer every 16 at-bats while hitting .213 with a homer every 10 ABs against righties.
It’s projected to be 95 degrees with the wind blowing out to right-center field at about 10 mph. That might neutralize the lefty-lefty advantage Steele has because Schwarber hits it out quite often when he puts it in the air. You might consider SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES (+115) along with the PHILLIES (-140).
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Run line/Against the spread
Thirteen of the Phillies’ last 15 wins have been by more than 1 run. Gibson has dazzled in his last 2 starts and I think it’s safe to play PHILLIES -1.5 (+140) for a solid return.
Over/Under
As noted, it’s hot and the wind is blowing out. Is that enough to nail a 10-spot, though? The Phillies might have to score 7 to cash this one with the way Gibson has dealt his last couple of outings. The Phils are 8-2 to the Under in their last 10 contests.
Let’s LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-130).
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