The Chicago Cubs (58-55) got blown out by the New York Mets (51-61) 11-2 in the series opener Monday and will look to bounce back in the 2nd game of a 3-game series Tuesday. First pitch at Citi Field is at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: tied 2-2
The Cubs have been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the last few weeks. They have won 13 of their last 17 games to move within a game of the final NL Wild Card spot and 2 1/2 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central.
The Mets are headed in the other direction, as they were sellers at the trade deadline and had lost 6 consecutive games prior to Monday’s win. The Mets are 7.5 games back of the final NL Wild Card.
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Cubs at Mets projected starters
RHP Jameson Taillon vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco
Taillon (6-6, 5.36 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 94 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 5-3 victory over the Reds Thursday
- 2023 road stats: 3-2, 4.28 ERA (40 IP, 19 ER), 6.5 K/9 in 8 starts.
- His ERA is nearly 2 runs lower on the road than at home (6.17), but his skills have been better at home: 3.8 K/BB vs. 1.8 on the road, .216 BABIP against him away from home vs. 382 BABIP at home
- Career vs. Mets: 2-0, 2.25 ERA (20 IP, 5 ER), 5.9 K/9 in 3 starts, although his most recent meeting with them was 2018
Carrasco (3-6, 6.60 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.64 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 through 76 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 0 K at Kansas City Royals Thursday
- 2023 home stats: 1-2, 8.51 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 25 ER) in 7 starts.
- Career vs. Cubs: 2-1, 2.74 ERA (23 IP, 7 ER), 8.6 K/9 in 4 starts.
- He faced the Cubs back in May and delivered one of his best starts of the year: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K
Cubs at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:58 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cubs -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Mets +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs -1.5 (+110) | Mets +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Cubs at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 8, Mets 4
Moneyline
The Cubs have been rolling and find themselves in a good spot against a struggling pitcher. They should come out on top but SKIP the moneyline as we can find better value on the run line.
Run line/Against the spread
The Chicago bats have been red-hot, plating 163 runs in their past 23 games. Carrasco has had a rough season and is showing no signs of turning things around. The veteran hurler has surrendered 23 runs (21 earned) in just 15 1/3 IP over his last 4 starts.
BET CUBS -1.5 (+110).
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Over/Under
Taillon boasts a 2.08 ERA over his last 5 starts but his skills during that time (3.0 BB/9, 6.8 K/9) remain underwhelming. He won’t completely shut the Mets down but he should get plenty of support from his teammates.
In 3 of Carrasco’s last 4 starts the opponent has scored 9 or more runs. Take OVER 9.5 (-105) or 11.5 (+185) for a chance at a bigger payout.
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