The Chicago Cubs (19-20) and Minnesota Twins (22-18) tangle in the finale of a 3-game set in Minneapolis. First pitch at Target Field is at 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
Chicago won Friday’s opener 6-2, but was then blasted 11-1 when the Twins ripped 5 HRs Saturday. The Cubs had a tidy May ERA of 2.76 before Saturday.
Minnesota had hit just 2 HR over its previous 5 games before peppering Cubs hurlers on Saturday. But the power display was not an aberration: the Twins rank 7th in MLB with 52 HR.
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Cubs at Twins projected starters
RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Louie Varland
Stroman (2-3, 2.28 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 47 1/3 innings.
- Owns a 2.45 ERA, 1.14 WHIP over his last 3 starts
- Has registered a 2.51 road ERA since 2021
- Has yielded just 17 ER across his last 11 starts in May
Varland (0-0, 4.32 ERA) is tabbed for his 4th start. He owns a 1.38 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 16 2/3 innings.
- Has been barreled up at a high 13% rate
- Made his MLB debut in 2022; went 26 innings overall last year, posting a 3.81 ERA
Cubs at Twins odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:12 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Cubs -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Twins -126 (bet $126 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-196) | Twins -1.5 (+162)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Cubs at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 4, Twins 3
Moneyline
At 190 runs scored against 148 allowed, the Cubs are undervalued at their current won-loss record. Varland is coming off a season-high 95 pitches, and the Twins have the lesser bullpen in this match-up (their 3.79 ERA is buoyed by a .266 batting average on balls in play).
The righty-righty mound match-up is a boon for Chicago (.754 OPS vs. right-handed pitching).
BACK THE CUBS (-108).
Run line/Against the spread
The low total and the extra juice make the run-and-a-half an unnecessary hurdle.
PASS.
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Over/Under
The 1st 2 games of the series landed on the Over, and 4 straight Chicago games have found the high side. But there are conflicting signals here, its a decent pitching match-up, and the Twin Cities forecast calls for a significant inward breeze.
PASS.
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