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The Milwaukee Brewers (48-33) welcome the Chicago Cubs (38-44) to American Family Field Friday for the 1st game of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Brewers lead 4-3
The Brewers have won 4 in a row, sweeping the Texas Rangers in their last series that ended with a 6-5 home victory Wednesday. Milwaukee has 1 of the best home records in the MLB at 25-12. It is 8-4 over its last 12 and is 45-36 against the spread (ATS).
The Cubs have struggled on the road this season and are 16-26 in away games. Chicago has lost 4 of its last 5 games, including 3 of 4 at the San Francisco Giants. The Cubs won the finale 5-3 though Thursday. They are 38-44 ATS on the season.
Cubs at Brewers projected starters
RHP Jameson Taillon vs. RHP Colin Rea
Taillon (4-3, 2.90 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 68 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 10 K in an 8-1 home win over the New York Mets Saturday
- 2024 away splits: 0-1, 2.79 ERA (29 IP, 9 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 3 HR, 4.7 K/9 in 5 starts
- Career vs. Brewers: 2-1, 4.91 ERA (25 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 5 starts
Rea (6-2, 3.62 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 in 82 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 0 K in a 9-5 road loss to the San Diego Padres Friday
- 2024 home splits: 4-1, 2.76 ERA (42 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 0.97 WHIP, 7 HR, 6.8 K/9 in 7 starts
- Career vs. Cubs: 0-0, 2.93 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 3 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Cubs at Brewers odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:31 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cubs +116 (bet $100 to win $116) | Brewers -136 (bet $136 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-178) | Brewers -1.5 (+146)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Cubs at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 4, Cubs 3
Moneyline
BET BREWERS (-136).
Rea at home has been almost unbeatable. He has started 7 games at home and the Brewers have won 6 of those and he has allowing 4 runs or fewer in 5 of those. Milwaukee has the 4th-best win rate at home as well as having a 27-20 record following a win.
Meanwhile, while Taillon has been a strong option for Chicago, the Cubs haven’t performed well on the road. As a road underdog, the Cubs are just 11-21. Considering the trends for both sides and the value here, back BREWERS (-136).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Brewers as a run-line favorite have some value, but the preferred route to play this game is on the moneyline. The Cubs weakness on the road and expensive value as a run-line underdog make them unplayable.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-110).
The Brewers have scored 5 or fewer in 3 of their last 6 games. While they have been more prone towards the Over, Rea has gone Under in 2 of his last 3 starts.
As for the Cubs, Taillon has gone Under in 3 straight starts, and the Cubs are 2-4 O/U in their last 6. Chicago has scored 3 or fewer in 3 of its last 5. It is 35-44-3 O/U on the season.
Given those trends, back UNDER 8.5 (-110).
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