The Chicago Cubs (6-5) and Los Angeles Dodgers (7-6) meet Sunday to cap off a 3-game set in Chavez Ravine. First pitch at Dodger Stadium is at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1.
Chicago won Friday’s series opener 8-2 and lost Saturday’s game 2-1. The feast-or-famine Cubs have scored 8 or more runs, or 3 or fewer runs, in each of their last 9 games.
A year ago, Los Angeles outscored Chicago 44-20. But with this series included, 5 of the last 6 Cubs-Dodgers games in L.A. have been decided by 2 runs or less.
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Cubs at Dodgers projected starters
LHP Drew Smyly vs. LHP Julio Urias
Smyly (0-1, 6.52 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 9 2/3 IP.
- Has been undone by a .357 batting average on balls in play
- Opposing bats are making zone contact on just 81.4% of his strikes
Urias (3-0, 1.50 ERA) is tabbed for his 4th start. He has a 0.83 WHIP, 1.0 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 18 IP.
- Has gone 6 innings in each of his 3 starts
- Has issued just 2 BB against 20 K’s
- Has held current Cubs batters to a .586 OPS
Cubs at Dodgers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:48 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Cubs +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Dodgers -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (+105) | Dodgers -1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Cubs at Dodgers picks and predictions
Prediction
Dodgers 4, Cubs 3
Moneyline
Los Angeles is 11-2 in the last 13 series meetings, but a better-than-his-numbers Smyly gives Chicago a fair shot here. PASS on the ML action, and look to gain better leverage on the run line.
Run line/Against the spread
The Dodgers sport the better starter here, but not by a ratio befitting these prices. Figure on the Under being a strong play and on a decent enough chance of this contest being close.
BACK THE CUBS +1.5 (+105).
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Over/Under
Both offenses have analytic support numbers that say their scoring has thus far been inflated. For instance, the Cubs’ 5.38 runs per game has been buoyed by a .340 BABIP in high-leverage situations and a .393 BABIP with runners are in scoring position. L.A.’s 5.53 RPG number is partly held aloft by a .324 BABIP when leading off an inning.
Add in the fact that both clubs are swung around to their lesser splits against lefties, and there is reason to tamp down run-scoring expectations.
Both bullpens figure as better than their 17-day surface ERA’s would indicate. And overall, both are in decent shape rest-wise.
Urias is an elite starter. Smyly is worth more credit than he is likely being given here.
TAKE THE UNDER 8 (+100).
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