The Chicago Cubs (47-65) go for the haymaker against the Cincinnati Reds (44-68) Sunday at Great American Ball Park in the finale of a 3-game set. First pitch is set for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Cubs lead 6-3
The Cubs took care of business Thursday in Iowa at the Field of Dreams game with a 4-2 victory. They flew to Cincinnati and dispatched the Reds 7-2 Saturday and look for the sweep Sunday. The Cubs have won 6 of 8 and 12 of 20 as they clearly received a jolt from not trading C Willson Contreras and OF Ian Happ at the deadline. Contreras has homered in 3 of his last 9 games, including Saturday.
The Reds have lost 5 in a row and are just 3-7 in the last 10 games. So what’s their problem? They’ve forgotten how to hit and scored just 23 runs during the stretch. They’ve scored 2 runs or fewer in 8 of those 10 games.
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Cubs at Reds projected starters
RHP Keegan Thompson vs. RHP Justin Dunn
Thompson (9-5, 3.36 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 99 IP.
- Not good on the road with a 5.09 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 6.6 K/9 vs. 2.40 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 at home
- Allowed 4 ER on 8 H and struck out 8 in 6 1/3 IP in a loss to Reds at Wrigley Field June 28
Dunn (0-1, 5.79 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He allowed 3 ER on 5 H, 2 BB and struck out 2 in 4 2/3 IP in a loss to the Mets Aug. 8.
- Was 0-3 with a 6.92 ERA, 1.81 WHIP and 8.0 K/9 in 7 starts at Triple-A Louisville
- He features a 4-seam fastball that averages 92 mph, a curveball, slider and changeup. Opponents hit his fastball at a .222 clip in his 1st start. He had an above-average spin rate on the heater last season in the 76th percentile.
Cubs at Reds odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:26 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Cubs -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Reds +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs -1.5 (+105) | Reds +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Cubs at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 5, Reds 2
Money line
The Cubs have a clear advantage on the mound and in the batter’s box. Chicago’s bullpen (4.01 ERA) is a full run better than Cincinnati’s last-ranking 5.05 ERA. Paying so much juice on the Cubs, especially to sweep, is a risky proposition. However, it makes sense here. Take the CUBS (-155) for a HALF UNIT.
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Run line/Against the spread
Seven of the last 8 Cubs wins have been by more than 1 run while the last 8 losses for the Reds have been by more than 1 run. I’ll take the CUBS -1.5 (+105). If you’re not comfortable with that, the CUBS FIRST 9 INNINGS (-133) would work too.
Over/Under
The Over has been the traditional betting method at Great American Ball Park, but Cincinnati hasn’t done its part of late. The Over is just 2-7-1 for them in the last 10. The Under is 4-0-1 in the Cubs’ last 5 games with the total set between 9.0-10.5. The Under is 4-0-1 in the Reds’ last 5 against a team with a losing record. Another factor coming into play here is the weather. There’s a 67% chance of rain with the wind blowing toward the left-field foul pole. Take the UNDER 9.5 (-125).
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