The Chicago Cubs (16-24) and Cincinnati Reds (12-28) open a 4-game set Monday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: First meeting of 2022 — Reds won 11-8 last season
The Cubs beat the Arizona Diamondbacks 5-4 Sunday, avoiding a 4-game sweep. OF/3B Patrick Wisdom and DH/1B Frank Schwindel hit back-to-back homers for the second game in a row as the Cubs snapped a 4-game slide. Interestingly, Schwindel hit the first one in Saturday’s 7-6 loss, while Wisdom batted ahead of “Frank the Tank” in the weekend finale.
The Reds avoided a 3-game sweep in Toronto with a 3-2 win at the Blue Jays Sunday. 1B Joey Votto, who grew up in suburban Toronto, broke a 2-2 tie with an 8th-inning solo homer, which turned out to be the difference. While Cincinnati owns MLB’s worst record, it just completed a 5-4 road trip, which included stops in Pittsburgh and Cleveland.
Cubs at Reds projected starters
LHP Drew Smyly vs. RHP Vladimir Gutierrez
Smyly (1-5, 3.97 ERA) is slated to make his 8th start of 2022. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 34 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 3-2 home loss vs. Pirates Wednesday
- Career vs. Reds: 3-0, 3.09 ERA (23 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 19 H, 4 HR, 7 BB, 26 K in 4 starts and 1 relief appearance
Gutierrez (0-5, 8.65 ERA) makes his 7th start this season. With a high ERA, it’s no surprise he has a 1.96 WHIP with a 6.6 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 26 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K in 14-11 home win vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 11
- Career vs. Cubs: 1-2, 2.38 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 in 4 starts – all last season during his rookie campaign
Cubs at Reds odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:25 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Cubs -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Reds +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs -1.5 (+122) | Reds +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)
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Cubs at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 8, Cubs 6
Money line
CHICAGO (-135) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.
In his last 3 starts, Cincinnati’s Gutierrez was hammered for 17 ERs in 13 innings (11.77 ERA) and allowed 19 hits and walked 10. There’s no reason to believe he’ll be any different Monday.
As mentioned, his counterpart in Smyly is 3-0 in his career vs. the Reds. That includes a 2-0 showing with a 2.25 ERA (12 IP, 3 ER) against them last year while pitching for the Atlanta Braves.
He tossed 6 innings in both of those outings, yielding just 1 ER in a 3-2 victory at Cincinnati in late June, and allowing 2 ER in a 3-2 win in Atlanta in August. In the second start, the southpaw only allowed 2 hits and struck out 7.
There’s no real home/away trend here. The Cubs are 9-9 on the road this season, while the Reds are 5-9 at home, though they are 4-2 in their last 6 at GABP.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
- Cubs: 20-20 | 11-7 away
- Reds: 18-22 | 6-8 home
If riding trends, the play would the Reds +1.5 (-150). Since we’re backing the Cubs’ ML, I’m not interested in laying the -150 price.
Betting against Cincinnati run lines was money early in the season. The Reds were 2-19 ATS between April 12-May 5. They’re 12-3 ATS since.
The Cubs are on a current 5-game ATS slide, following an 8-0 ATS run.
Over/Under
OVER 9.5 (+110) is the way to go.
- Cubs: 18-19-3 | 7-11 away
- Reds 23-16-1 | 11-3 home
Gutierrez’s last outings were already highlighted – or lowlighted.
The key here is that the Reds lead the majors in Overs, both overall and at home. It’s not my strongest play, however, since they are on a 4-game Under run and are 1-6 O/U in their last 7.
Plus, the Under is 6-1 in Smyly’s starts (the O/U is 3-3 in Gutierrez’s starts).
Meanwhile, the Cubs are coming off 3 Overs in a row.
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