The Chicago Cubs (42-39) start a three-game set with the NL Central rival Cincinnati Reds (40-40) Friday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Chicago has lost six straight games to the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers entering Friday and is just 3-7 in the last 10 games.
Cincinnati prevented a three-game sweep by the San Diego Padres with a 5-4 come from behind victory Thursday after the Reds rallied to score two runs in the bottom of the 9th. The Reds are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
Season series: Tied 3-3.
RHP Alec Mills is on the hill for the Cubs. Mills is 3-1 with a 5.11 ERA (37 IP, 21 ER), 1.60 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 across four starts and 12 relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 2 K in Chicago’s 3-2 loss at the Los Angeles Dodgers Saturday.
- vs. Reds on the current roster: 56 at-bats with a .143/.226/.321 slash line, 17/6 K/BB, 3 HR and 5 RBIs.
RHP Sonny Gray makes his 11th start for the Reds. Gray is 1-4 with a 3.42 ERA (50 IP, 19 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision with 3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB and 5 K in Cincinnati’s 5-1 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers June 8.
- vs. Reds on the current roster: 114 at-bats with a .123/.194/.202 slash line, 39/8 K/BB, 2 HR and 9 RBIs.
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Cubs at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:34 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Cubs +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Reds -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-140) | Reds -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Reds 8, Cubs 3
Money line (ML)
BET the REDS (-160) for 1 unit because their lineup is very productive at home, the Cubs are just 16-26 in road games and Gray’s pitching peripherals both against current Chicago batters and for the season are far superior to Mills’.
For instance, the Reds lineup is third in hard-hit rate, fourth in wRC+ and second in wOBA at home while the Cubs lineup is bottom-10 in the majors on the road across all of those hitting metrics.
In fact, the Reds scored a combined 23 runs in their three-game set with the Cubs in Cincinnati earlier this season.
Lastly, Gray has a 2.27 FIP, .245 expected wOBA, .316 expected slugging percentage and 32.1% strikeout rate vs. active Cubs batters.
Whereas Mills has a 6.53 FIP, .393 expected wOBA, .570 expected slugging percentage and a 20.5% strikeout rate against current Reds hitters.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the REDS -1.5 (+115) for a half unit because of Cincinnati’s aforementioned edges and Chicago has lost by two or more runs in four of the past six games.
However, it’s only a “lean” because three of the six Cubs-Reds meetings this season have been decided by a single run and Cincinnati’s bullpen is unreliable with 27th-ranked WAR and 28th-ranked left-on-base percentage.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-115) for a quarter unit – if at all – because these teams have a combined 4-10 O/U record when these starters take the mound and a vast majority of the market is betting the Over.
Even though I don’t like following a crowd of people in sports betting, I do agree with the market in preferring the Over because of the Reds hitting prowess in Cincinnati and the Great American Ball Park being fifth in runs scored due to park factors.
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