The Chicago Cubs (3-1) play the Cincinnati Reds (1-3) in the second game of a four-game series Tuesday at 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park. We analyze the Cubs-Reds betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Cubs at Reds: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Alec Mills vs. RHP Tyler Mahle
Mills got into the rotation due to SP José Quintana slicing his thumb on broken glass while washing dishes.
He is 1-1 with a 3.77 ERA through six career starts and 19 total appearances. He has struck out 69 hitters over 57 1/3 innings pitched.
Mahle (2019): 3-12 with a 5.14 ERA over 25 starts and 129 2/3 innings
- 2019 vs. Cubs: 0-0 with a 5.73 ERA in two starts (eight strikeouts in 11 IP).
- Career vs. Cubs: 2-1 with a 3.64 ERA over five starts (25 strikeouts in 29 2/3 IP).
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Cubs at Reds: Key injuries
Visit sportsdata.usatoday.com to track all MLB injuries leading up to game time.
Reds
- 2B Mike Moustakas (illness) out
- C Tucker Barnhart (personal) out
- 1B Matt Davidson (COVID-19) out
- OF Nick Senzel (illness) questionable
Cubs at Reds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Cubs 8, Reds 4
Moneyline (ML)
Despite their current 1-3 record, the Reds (-115) had three straight quality starts (six or more innings pitched and three or fewer earned runs) out of their first three starters. Monday, the Cubs (+105) got to SP Wade Miley early, chasing him after 1 2/3 innings pitched and five earned runs surrendered, in an 8-7 win.
Tuesday’s Reds’ starter, Mahle, fills in for regular No. 5 starter Anthony DeSclafani, who’s recovering from a shoulder injury. There’s a reason Mahle isn’t a regular starter; he has an 11-23 career record with a 4.88 ERA. Look for Cubs SS Javier Baez and LF Kyle Schwarber to find their stride—both of which have four hits in 10 at-bats against Mahle.
Also, the absence of Moustakas in the Reds lineup will make it easier for Mills, an inexperienced major league starter, to navigate. Cincinnati is ranked 22nd in batting average and has the second-most runners left on base.
BET CUBS (+105). New to sports betting? A $100 bet on the Cubs (+105) earns a profit of $105 if Chicago beats Cincinnati.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Reds (+1.5, -176) have lost three games by a combined four runs. Seven of the Cubs’ (-1.5, +145) eight wins over the Reds last year were by two-plus runs.
Since we are betting Chicago on the moneyline I lean to them here, however, I’ll PASS on the run line because of the suboptimal value.
Over/Under (O/U)
I LIKE OVER 10 (-110) in Cubs-Reds. The Over has cashed in the last four Cubs road games and in the last five starts for Mahle at home.
Cincinnati is due for some runs because of all those runners left on base and their 27th ranking in BABIP (batting average on balls in play).
New to sports betting? A $55 wager on Over 10 (-110) pulls a $50 profit if the two teams combine for at least 11 runs.
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