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The Chicago Cubs (78-71) and Arizona Diamondbacks (78-72) close out a 3-game set at Chase Field on Sunday Night Baseball. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Diamondbacks lead 5-1
The Cubs have dropped 4 in a row and 7 of 10 now. They now have just a half-game lead over the D-Backs for the 2nd Wild Card spot. Four teams are now within 1 game of the Cubs’ spot, and they need to turn it around quickly.
Arizona took the first 2 games of the series, 6-4 Friday and 7-6 in 13 innings Saturday. The Diamondbacks could take over that 2nd Wild Card spot with a victory. They are 18-12 over the last 30 games and 26-21 against left-handed starters.
Cubs at Diamondbacks projected starters
LHP Jordan Wicks vs. RHP Ryne Nelson
Wicks (3-0, 1.99 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 in 22 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 K Monday against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field
- Home/road splits: 2-0, 1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP in 3 road starts; 1-0, 2.70 ERA, 1.35 WHIP in 1 home start
Nelson (7-8, 5.53 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 in 135 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K Tuesday against New York Mets
- 1 career start vs. Cubs Sept. 7: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 3 K
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Cubs at Diamondbacks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:13 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cubs -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Diamondbacks -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs -1.5 (+140) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Cubs at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 6, Diamondbacks 5
Moneyline
Being swept wouldn’t put the Cubs down and out, but it would make things a lot more difficult than they would like. There are 5 teams battling it out for the final 2 spots, and the rookie Wicks impressed in Colorado last time out. The thin air didn’t matter much there, and he should be able to tame the Arizona heat.
Take the CUBS -115.
Run line/Against the spread
I’m not a fan of either run line here, but there is a a prop I’m eyeing. Wicks has only punched out 2, 1 and 3 batters in his last 3 starts. Arizona is the 4th-toughest team to K in the majors.
So I’ll take JORDAN WICKS UNDER 3.5 K’s (-140).
Over/Under
The Cubs are just 2-8 O/U over the last 10, and the D-Backs are 5-5. The Over is 5-5 in the last 10 between them as well, but both games in this series have gone Over. Wicks has only pitched to 1 Over, but his last 2 starts had totals of 11 or more. Nelson has pitched to Overs in 3 of 4.
If this were 9.5, I’d stay away, but I’ll LEAN OVER 9 (-115).
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