The Chicago Bulls (28-15) head to the Cream City Friday for an 8 p.m. ET game against the Milwaukee Bucks (28-19) at Fiserv Forum. Below, we look at the Bulls vs. Bucks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Chicago snapped a four-game losing skid by upsetting the Cleveland Cavaliers 117-104 as a 3.5-point home underdog Wednesday. The Bulls will be without All-Star SG Zach LaVine and first-year PG Lonzo Ball. Chicago is 25-18 against the spread (ATS) and 22-20-1 Over/Under (O/U).
Milwaukee took care of business by beating the Memphis Grizzlies 126-114 Wednesday, covering as a 6.5-point home favorite and ending a two-game slide. The Bucks are 21-26 ATS and 20-27 O/U.
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Bulls at Bucks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:54 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Bulls +360 (bet $100 to win $360) | Bucks -500 (bet $500 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Bulls +10.5 (-115) | Bucks -10.5 (-107)
- Over/Under (O/U): 227.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Bulls at Bucks key injuries
Bulls
- PG Lonzo Ball (knee) out
- SG Zach LaVine (knee) out
- PF Derrick Jones Jr. (knee) out
- SF Javonte Green (hip) out
Bucks
- None.
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Bulls at Bucks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Bucks 126, Bulls 107
Money line
PASS because Milwaukee is obviously the right side but the Bucks (-500) is way too expensive for an NBA regular-season money line favorite.
Plus Milwaukee is 13-6 SU as a home favorite, Chicago is 3-7 SU as a road underdog and the Bulls are missing several starters including All-Star LaVine.
Against the spread
BET the BUCKS -10.5 (-107) for 1 unit because Milwaukee is ranked in the top-10 of defensive efficiency and Chicago really struggles against good defenses.
For example, the Bulls are 4-10 straight-up (SU) versus teams with a top-10 adjusted defensive rating with a minus-9.6 points per 100 possessions (ranked 22nd) and a minus-6.4 ATS margin (ranked 29th), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Milwaukee is also good at keeping opponents off the free-throw line, which matters against a Chicago team, and Bulls wing DeMar DeRozan in particular, that thrive by getting to the charity stripe.
Chicago’s offensive free-throw rate increases by 5.5% when DeRozan is on the floor, which grades in the 94th percentile of wings, per CTG.
However, the Bucks are sixth in adjusted defensive free-throw rate and have plenty of wings to throw out DeRozan such as PF Giannis Antetokounmpo and SF Khris Middleton.
On top of that, Milwaukee matches up well with Chicago, stylistically. For instance, the Bucks are fifth in 3-point attempt rate and the Bulls rank 25th in defensive 3-point percentage.
Furthermore, according to ShotQuality.com, Milwaukee’s offense ranks fourth in shot quality off of catch-and-shoot 3-pointers and eighth from off-the-dribble 3-pointers.
Whereas Chicago’s defense ranks 24th in shot quality allowed against off-the-dribble 3-pointers and 20th against catch-and-shoot 3-pointers (ShotQuality.com).
Finally, this is a better spot for Milwaukee because the Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games versus teams with a 60.0% winning percentage or better, while the Bulls are 3-5 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning record and 4-6 ATS as road underdogs.
BET the BUCKS -10.5 (-107).
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the OVER 227.5 (-108) for a one-third unit because the Bulls are 4-0-1 O/U in the last five games, the Bucks are 8-2 O/U in their last 10 games as home favorites and we already discussed Chicago’s poor recent defense versus Milwaukee’s aggressive 3-point shooting.
My hesitancy with the OVER 227.5 (-108) is Chicago’s starting backcourt all lower the frequency of transition offense the Bulls play, Chicago is 2-7-1 O/U as a road underdog and the Bucks are 9-10 O/U as home favorites.
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