Although the College Football Playoff race this season seems a bit less complicated than previous seasons, it’s still challenging to keep track of which teams need to win or lose and when if your team is on the bubble.
Generally, regardless of which team you root for, you want the top-3 teams, Ohio State, LSU and Clemson, to win out because if they lose, depending on which team it’s to, they could still make the playoff and take the fourth spot. For example, if LSU loses to Georgia in the SEC championship game, both teams could get in, which is not ideal for everyone else. Though unlikely, the same could be true if Ohio State’s only loss is, say, to 12-1 Minnesota.
So ahead of the final regular-season games for the playoff hopefuls with conference championship matchups looming, here’s a guide to help you keep track of which teams to root for and against in the next couple weeks.
If you cheer for Ohio State, LSU or Clemson…
Obviously, this one is pretty simple. The top-3 teams are in total control, on 11-game win streaks going into Week 14 and have at least an 86 percent chance to make the playoff. All they have to do is keep winning, and they’re in the College Football Playoff. And realistically, Ohio State could lose to Michigan and LSU could lose to Texas A&M, and they likely would both still make it as one-loss conference champions.
With its strength of schedule, Clemson is probably the only team that cannot afford to lose either this weekend against South Carolina or in the ACC title game to have a shot at defending its national championship.
However, for these three fan bases, you also want to probably want to root for Auburn to beat Alabama this weekend, which would hand the Crimson Tide their second loss and probably keep them out of the playoff for the first time. An Alabama loss wouldn’t help ensure Ohio State, LSU or Clemson contend for a title, but come on: Do you really want to have to deal with Alabama in the playoff?
[jwplayer SaUsBquR-q2aasYxh]
If you cheer for Georgia…
You want everyone else to lose and lose multiple times. The Bulldogs are 28.5-point favorites against Georgia Tech on Saturday, so that game really shouldn’t be an issue. But to make the playoff, they will likely have to upset LSU in the SEC championship game, which college football math suggests isn’t actually that outrageous of a goal. The Tigers currently have a 52.4 percent chance to beat Georgia, according to ESPN’s FPI, which makes this game basically a coin toss and probably a big reason why the Bulldogs currently have a 50 percent chance to make the playoff.
But Georgia will also want a backup plan, however unlikely it may be. If it loses a close SEC championship game and finishes 11-2, it could possibly still make the playoff if the selection committee views it relatively favorably compared with potential two-loss conference champions around the country.
Bulldogs fans should root for Alabama to lose to Auburn and Minnesota to lose to Wisconsin, in addition to two-loss Big 12 and Pac-12 winners. Since it seems unlikely that Baylor will fall to Kansas this week, the best bet is for Oklahoma to lose to Oklahoma State for its second defeat of the season but then win the Big 12 championship game. And then in the Pac-12, you want two-loss Oregon to beat likely Utah in the title game. (If Utah loses to Colorado this weekend, USC will represent the Pac-12 South, which means the conference will have a two-loss champ either way.)
If you cheer for Alabama…
You want to beat Auburn, obviously, and then sit back and watch the college football world burn so your team’s 47 percent chance to make the playoff gets a boost. You need the top-3 teams to win out and maintain their positions, but you especially want LSU to beat Georgia in the SEC championship game.
From there, you’re cheering for Georgia’s backup plan. You want as many playoff contenders as possible, particularly the conference champions, to have a less favorable resume than the Crimson Tide. And, if the top-3 teams win out, Alabama probably will be up against Georgia, Oklahoma, Baylor and Utah for that final playoff spot. So two losses for everyone!
If you cheer for Utah…
And your team doesn’t beat Colorado, none of this matters. Utah lost to USC, currently second in the Pac-12 South, back in September. So another loss would put it in a tie with the Trojans, who would then win the tiebreaker. But Utah is a 28.5-point favorite over the Buffaloes, and if it does, it will advance to the Pac-12 championship game. Beat Oregon and win the conference, and it will look pretty good to the selection committee as a one-loss champ.
But for good measure, Utah fans should also root for Alabama to lose to Auburn and for a two-loss Big 12 winner, which would certainly help it in the eyes of the committee.
If you cheer for Oklahoma or Baylor…
You’ve got a one-loss team with a shot at the conference title. But first, Oklahoma needs to beat Oklahoma State, and Baylor needs to beat Kansas in Week 14. They could both lose and still play in the conference championship game, but they’d probably be eliminated from the playoff picture.
Both fan bases want their team to emerge as a one-loss Big 12 champion, and the best-case scenario would also include a decisive victory. But to all but ensure a playoff berth, fans should also root for Auburn over Alabama and a two-loss Pac-12 winner, which would likely Oregon.
If you cheer for Minnesota or Wisconsin…
You’re probably excited/very nervous about their Big Ten West matchup Saturday because the winner will play Ohio State in the conference title game. Wisconsin is a slim 3-point favorite in Minneapolis.
Now, both teams have ridiculously low chances to make the playoff with Wisconsin at just two percent and Minnesota at one percent. However, if the winner of Saturday’s game can ultimately upset Ohio State, it might be hard for the selection committee to deny it a playoff spot — especially if we’re talking about a one-loss Minnesota team. In that scenario, it seems like the Buckeyes would still get in if that’s their only loss, so the committee really couldn’t justify putting the Big Ten runner-up in without the champion.
Winning the conference is really the only hope here. A loss at any point would be Minnesota’s second and Wisconsin’s third, and that won’t earn a playoff spot without some colossal chaos around the country — and even then, it might not be enough.
If you cheer for Penn State, Florida, Michigan or Oregon…
Better luck next season.
[opinary poll=”does-the-college-football-playoff-need-t” customer=”forthewin”]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 tag=421393249]