The Charlotte Hornets (40-38) head to the FTX Arena Tuesday for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off with the Miami Heat (51-28). Below, we look at the Hornets vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Charlotte is 4-3 straight up (SU) but just 3-4 against the spread (ATS) in the last two weeks, with the latest being a 144-114 loss to the 76ers Saturday in Philadelphia.
Miami won its fourth consecutive game Sunday (4-0 ATS) by upsetting the Raptors 114-109 in Toronto as 4.5-point road underdogs — without SF Jimmy Butler and PF P.J. Tucker.
The Heat are 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS in their season series with the Hornets and the total is 0-3 Over/Under (O/U).
Hornets at Heat odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Hornets +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Heat -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Hornets +5.5 (-110) | Heat -5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 226.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
Hornets at Heat key injuries
Hornets
- None
Heat
- SF Jimmy Butler (toe) questionable
- C Dewayne Dedmon (ankle) questionable
- PG Kyle Lowry (rest) questionable
- PF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable
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Hornets at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 112, Hornets 105
Money line
PASS even though the Heat should win comfortably because Miami (-230) is out of my price range.
That said, Charlotte is 24th in defensive rating and Miami shreds bad defenses. The Heat are 23-7 SU versus teams in the bottom-10 of defensive efficiency with a plus-9.1 adjusted net rating (ranked sixth), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
On the other hand, Miami is fourth in defensive rating and Charlotte struggles against good defenses. The Hornets are 8-20 SU versus teams in the top-10 of defensive efficiency with a minus-5.9 adjusted net rating (ranked 19th), per CTG.
Furthermore, the Heat destroyed the Hornets in their first 3 meetings. Charlotte is shooting just 38.9% from the field (29.0% from 3) and being outscored 109.7-97.3 by Miami this season.
The only pro-Hornets argument here is “Miami won’t sweep the season series.” But, the Heat should roll the Hornets and I’ll lay the points instead.
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Against the spread
BET the HEAT -5.5 (-110) for 1 unit because they are very profitable in this spot whereas Hornets +5.5 (-110) are not.
Miami has a plus-3.6 ATS margin (ranked eighth) versus bottom-10 defenses, per CTG, and 10-5 ATS as 5-to-7-point favorites.
Charlotte has a minus-3.4 ATS margin (ranked 26th) versus top-10 defenses and 5-8-1 ATS as 5-to-7-point underdogs.
GIMME the HEAT -5.5 (-110) to roll the Hornets again.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 226.5 (-112) even though my prediction is well below the total because Miami is shooting 41.4% from 3 in the last 7 games, Charlotte is seventh in 3-point shooting percentage and the Hornets-Heat series is due for an Over.
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