The Chargers enter Week 15 on a high note after defeating the Dolphins on Sunday night but continue their run against AFC playoff teams with a matchup against the Titans this weekend.
Here are four reasons to be optimistic about Los Angeles’ chances to fortify their position in the playoffs.
Injury trajectories
As of Thursday, the Chargers continue to wait on the injury status of Derwin James, Bryce Callahan, Sebastian Joseph-Day, and Trey Pipkins. That seems like a substantial list, but Los Angeles should get Donald Parham Jr. back on Sunday, as well as Mike Williams, Zion Johnson, and Jamaree Salyer practicing in full. Tennessee, meanwhile, has six starters on this week’s injury report whose game status seems to be in question. The most important of these are defensive linemen Denico Autry and Jeffery Simmons and cornerback Kristian Fulton, key members of the Titans’ defense. We’ve seen what this Chargers offense looked like last week with close to all of its pieces back, and adding Parham against a bruised Tennessee crew should only bring the offense to new heights.
Lackluster pass defense
Even with everyone healthy, Tennessee is 28th in pass defense DVOA. The Chargers are also first in neutral pass rate, while the Titans allow the highest neutral pass rate in the NFL. (Neutral pass rate is the rate at which teams pass on 1st and 2nd down outside of two-minute drills when a team’s winning probability is between 20-80%, per Hayden Winks of Underdog Fantasy.) The Chargers throw the ball a lot, and teams that play the Titans throw the ball a lot. Tennessee also struggles to defend said passes, while Los Angeles has gotten better and better at passing the ball as Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams have gotten healthy. With the Titans potentially also missing Fulton and the Chargers gaining steam, the statistical trends should only continue.
Brandon Staley, the game planner
We caught a glimpse last week of what made Staley such a coveted head coaching candidate when the Chargers hired him before the 2020 season – the ability to erase an opposing offense. Missing six defensive starters, LA could counter anything and everything Miami attempted, holding Tua Tagovailoa to a 35.7% completion percentage and the running game to 4.2 yards per carry, over an entire yard shorter than LA’s season average. Tennessee prevents an entirely different challenge with Derrick Henry and a run-heavy offense. Still, Staley and Renaldo Hill’s ability to do more with less should be trusted. Ryan Tannehill hasn’t exactly set the world on fire this season either and will likely be missing rookie Treylon Burks (concussion) for a second straight week.
California blues
The Titans haven’t beaten the Chargers in Southern California since before they were in Tennessee and called the Titans: a 17-7 Houston Oilers win over San Diego in 1990 is the last time this franchise won a road game against the Chargers. Since that game, Tennessee is 3-11 overall against the Bolts, including a 20-19 LA victory in London in which they held Derrick Henry to just 33 yards rushing. Dating back to 1960, the Chargers lead the series 28-18-1. Justin Herbert is the latest in a long line of Chargers franchise quarterbacks, and to date, they’ve all had at least one thing in common: beating the Houston/Tennessee franchise.