It’s time for the narrative battle of the century, with 2020 top picks Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa facing off for the second time.
Los Angeles needs a victory to stay relevant in the playoff race, but the battle of the quarterbacks will take center stage.
Here are four reasons to be optimistic about Herbert’s chances of evening out the series with Tagovailoa.
Who covers Austin Ekeler?
Miami doesn’t have a clear option to track Ekeler in the passing game, as evidenced by last week’s contest against San Francisco. Christian McCaffrey had eight receptions for 80 yards and a touchdown in that game, carving up Miami’s defense even with Brock Purdy playing most of the game. I’m not saying Ekeler is a McCaffrey-level player, but the Chargers back does lead all running backs in receiving yards, with five more than McCaffrey. Ekeler has been a focal point of the Chargers’ offense with the injuries along the offensive line, and that should continue to pay dividends for LA on Sunday night.
Pass protection
Miami is missing Austin Jackson, who was placed on injured reserve this week, while also waiting on the status of Terron Armstead, who did not practice Wednesday with toe and pectoral injuries. If Armstead can’t play, the Dolphins will start Greg Little and Brandon Shell at tackle, who have combined to allow 35 pressures this season. Shell’s pass-blocking efficiency of 95.6 and Little’s of 94.1 are in the bottom 12 offensive linemen with at least 275 pass-blocking snaps, per PFF. That should give Khalil Mack and Chris Rumph plenty of opportunity to generate pressure on Tua Tagovailoa, which will be of paramount importance to prevent him from hitting long-developing routes to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Run game allergy
Miami runs the ball 22.4 times per game, third-fewest in the league, for an average of 89.7 yards per game, fifth fewest in the league. That’s good for a per-carry average of just 4.0, 27th in the NFL, suggesting that the Dolphins both avoid running the ball and aren’t good when they choose to. Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. haven’t produced in the same fashion since their time in San Francisco despite playing in the same offensive system. It’s good news for the Chargers, whose run defense has struggled despite a fairly capable pass defense. Los Angeles allows the most rushing yards per attempt in the league, but Miami has already played the defense that allows the second-most: Detroit. In that game, which came in Week 8, Miami ran for only 4.1 yards per attempt despite the Lions allowing 5.2 per attempt for the season. The Dolphins needed 382 yards from Tagovailoa and a defensive stand in the fourth quarter to come away with a 31-27 victory.
Special team struggles
Miami is dead last in special teams DVOA this season, with negative points added in all five categories of the third phase of the game. Kicker Jason Sanders has recovered from a midseason hiccup during which he missed a field goal and two extra points in a two-game stretch, but he still seems to be a less reliable option than Cameron Dicker at this stage. Punter Thomas Morstead is just above average in punter EPA above expected, but Miami’s -5.1 points received from the punt team are sixth worst in the NFL, per Football Outsiders. The Chargers, meanwhile, are the 12th best special teams in the league, with positive points added numbers in every area except kickoff return. However, Miami’s kickoff unit is the fourth worst in the league by Football Outsiders’ metrics. If the game comes down to which team can make a play on special teams, that should move the needle in favor of LA.