Continuing in Chargers Wire’s head coaching candidate profile series, a name that is rumored to create a tectonic shift to the cycle is New England head coach Bill Belichick.
Belichick needs no introduction. The eight-time Super Bowl champion has coached for nearly fifty years in the NFL. Next season would be his 30th year as a head coach. 24 of those seasons were spent as the birther of the modern Patriots dynasty. With Tom Brady as his quarterback, New England won six Super Bowls in a two-decade span.
The results haven’t been as great since Brady left for Tampa Bay and eventually retired. Belichick has just one winning season and playoff appearance in the last four years. With the Patriots’ loss at Buffalo last week, Belichick clinched the worst overall single-season winning percentage of his extensive head coaching career.
Reports have varied on Belichick’s job security throughout the year. Earlier this year, Ian Rapoport and other sources reported that Belichick signed a multi-year extension with New England. As the season’s results have worsened for the Patriots, though, confidence in the idea that he is safe has waned.
The rumors of a divorce between the two sides have only magnified.
That’s where things start to get complicated regarding a Belichick move. Does Robert Kraft simply part ways with Belichick outright as the Patriots move on? Perhaps. But, if the idea that New England signed him to a long-term extension is true, one has to wonder about the trade possibilities.
After seeing what Sean Payton fetched in return for the Saints last offseason, Kraft could easily get the Pats some draft capital by holding onto Belichick as an asset until his new employer trades for him.
It still needs to be fully confirmed that Belichick’s potential suitors must trade for him, but it seems unlikely that New England would let him walk for nothing.
Naturally, age has to be at least mentioned in the concept of his candidacy. Belichick would be 72 at the start of the 2024 season. Romeo Crennel, at 73 on an interim basis in 2020, holds the record for the oldest HC to coach a game in NFL history. It may not be a deciding factor from the Chargers’ standpoint, but how long Belichick wants to continue dual head coach-general manager responsibilities at an advanced age would have a massive impact on any franchise that hires him.
What does that look like if he’s only going to a new team for, say, one four-year contract? Who takes over as head coach after he leaves? What does the power vacuum at GM look like after Belichick hypothetically retires? These are all questions that at least have to be considered as the Chargers undergo a rebuild of an expensive, old roster around Justin Herbert.
As mentioned, Belichick has enjoyed both GM and HC responsibilities with the Patriots for 24 years. He even had de facto GM responsibilities during his Browns’ head coaching tenure in the 90’s. How much control the Spanos family is willing to give Belichick will likely decide whether LA is considered a possible destination.
In the macro of Belichick’s candidacy, his successes and failures with the Patriots can be broken down into two eras. With Brady and without. With Brady, he’s a six-time Super Bowl champion who may undeniably be the greatest coach of all time.
Without Brady, however, Belichick’s track record over the last four years has fallen off. He’s struggled in the draft for over ten years. Per Chad Graff of The Athletic in a recent piece, Belichick has not re-signed a top three-round Patriots selection in the draft since 2013 (Duron Harmon).
The current state of the Patriots is less defined by Brady’s departure than it is by what Belichick has done since. N’Keal Harry and Mac Jones were seen as first-round cornerstones for what the franchise would look like post-Brady—neither panned out. Draft misses like Tyquan Thornton have limited what the Patriots have gotten out of the draft and forced them to overspend on contracts in free agency. Belichick’s draft boards have also varied wildly compared to expert consensus regarding value.
Sure, all GMs have bad drafts as well as good ones. But for a Chargers organization in desperate need of young, cost-controlled talent, is Belichick the head of football operations they’d want after his struggles of roster building over the last ten years?
In summary, you can’t write a Belichick profile without saying he’s arguably the greatest head coach ever. He’s probably the best developer of defensive talent that the game will ever see. The resume, aside from the last four years, is impeccable.
But on the flip side, Belichick is 71. He’d probably cost draft capital to acquire. His coaching staffs of recent seasons and his draft prowess over the last decade have left a lot to be desired. In 2024, “The Patriot Way” is struggling. Is it wise for the Chargers to lean on the past and bet on Belichick? Or should they pass on him to find a new football future?