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The Clemson Tigers (10-3) and Texas Longhorns (11-2) meet in the first round of the College Football Playoff Saturday. Kickoff from Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET (TNT / Max). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Clemson vs. Texas odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Clemson, which is No. 13 in the US LBM Coaches Poll and the No. 12 seed in this tournament, is the champion of the ACC by way of a 34-31 triumph (as a +2.5 underdog) over SMU in that league’s title game Dec. 7. The Tigers, who rank 66th in FBS in total defense (364.9 yards per game), won that game despite being outgained by 132 yards. CU was a plus-2 in turnovers vs. the Mustangs and is a plus-7 since Nov. 9.
No. 4 Texas is the 5 seed in the national championship bracket. The Longhorns are the runners up of the SEC via a 22-19 loss to Georgia in the Dec. 7 championship game. UT was tabbed as a 3-point favorite in that contest and is just 1-3 against the spread (ATS) over its last 4 games.
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Clemson at Texas odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Friday at 9:45 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Clemson +350 (bet $100 to win $350) | Texas -450 (bet $450 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Clemson +12.5 (-110) | Texas -12.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 51.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Clemson at Texas picks and predictions
Prediction
Texas 31, Clemson 17
Moneyline
No interest. Lots of juice here, and that’s drowning out leverage on a Texas lean. AVOID.
Against the spread
The venue here matters. A lot.
The Texas defense has been really good all season. It has been especially stingy at DKR.
At home, UT has held foes to 17 points or fewer in 6 of 7 games. Against the pass — a big key against the throw-first Tigers, the Longhorns have allowed more than 200 yards in a home game once (and that was 211 yards Nov. 23 vs. Kentucky).
When the Longhorns have the ball, they should be able to leverage what has been an improving ground game against a CU defense which is better against the pass. As a success-rate matchup, the UT run game against the Tiger run defense is a separator.
Add in Texas being the better red-zone team, especially at the defensive end, where the Longhorns’ 46.4% touchdown-allowed percentage ranks 7th in the nation.
UT has a strong history in cranking out ATS wins when tabbed as a double-digit favorite. Looking for a 7-to-10-point lead by halftime and some ground-and-pound clocking of that edge in the second half.
BACK THE LONGHORNS -12.5 (-110).
Over/Under
The Under has cashed in 4 straight Texas games and is 7-1- in UT’s last 8. Clemson’s last 5 lined games have netted a 4-1 mark for the Under.
Both teams typically play uptempo, and this game does figure to have several touchdowns scored. The Tigers are also good at forcing turnovers which can often create short-field scoring opportunities.
But the counter for the Longhorns — and Under bettors — is UT’s red-zone defense and the team’s run game. And both against the pass and the run, the Longhorns are exceptional in thwarting explosive plays.
It’s a small-to-moderate lean (some bettors may prefer a partial-unit play here), but the UNDER 51.5 (-110) — price available on FanDuel Sportsbook — is the value side in this CFP battle.
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