If CBS Sports’ Tom Fornelli is right about his Big Ten team predictions in 2023, there will be something of a logjam at the top of the conference in its final year before expansion.
The national analyst took a stab at predicting each and every Big Ten team’s wins and losses with just over two months before the 2023 season commences, and while he’s very, very high on Michigan football, he doesn’t exempt the Wolverines from getting a mark in the loss column.
The good news? He does predict that Michigan will beat rival Ohio State. The bad news? He does have a loss for the Wolverines in Happy Valley.
Over/under 10.5 wins
Wins: East Carolina, UNLV, Bowling Green, Indiana, at Maryland, Rutgers, at Nebraska, at Minnesota, at Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State
Losses: at Penn StateAnalysis: Last season, I had both Michigan and Ohio State starting the year 11-0 before meeting in the final week of the regular season, and that’s what happened. I don’t have that happening this year. The nonconference shouldn’t provide a challenge, so we probably won’t get a clear reading of how good this team is until a road trip to Nebraska in late September — or, we may have to wait until mid-November when the Wolverines go to State College. It’s the only regular-season game I have them losing. Pick: Over 10.5 (-130)
Where the logjam comes in is that he has Michigan beating the Buckeyes for the third-straight year — which certainly would cause something of a calamity in Columbus — but he has Penn State losing to OSU in its contest. Otherwise, he Has Ohio State only losing to Michigan, which would present a three-way tie at the top of the Big Ten East. Thus, given that all three teams, should his prediction come to fruition, will have split the wins and losses and have the same record, tiebreakers would be in effect.
Here are the Big Ten division tiebreakers directly from the conference should three teams find themselves in such a scenario, in order of utilization:
1. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage in games between the tied teams.
(a) Example: East 1 is 2-0 in games between the tied teams with wins over East 2 and 3 – East 1 would be the representative.
2. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage within their division.
3. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, 6, and 7).
(a) When arriving at a group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group, rather than record against the individual teams.
4. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents.
5. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents.
(a) Example: East 1 non-divisional opponents are 20-7, East 2 non-divisional opponents are 19-8, East 3 non-divisional opponents are 14-13 – East 1 would be the representative.
6. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared against the highest placed non-divisional teams in their division order of finish (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7).
(a) When arriving at a group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group, rather than record against the individual teams.
(b) When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the record will prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e. 1-0 is better than 0-0, 2-0 is better than 1-0, etc.)
7. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative.
8. The representative will be chosen by random draw.
Michigan football did soundly beat Penn State last season, albeit at home. Jim Harbaugh is 2-2 against the Nittany Lions on the road in State College.
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