Category: Utah State

Basketball Preseason Series 24-25: Best Shooters

Contact/Follow @aztecbreakdown Over the weeks leading up to the season Mountain West Wire will be looking at the best players at different aspects of the game. As basketball has become more and more positionless it’s more about being the best at …

Contact/Follow @aztecbreakdown

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Over the weeks leading up to the season Mountain West Wire will be looking at the best players at different aspects of the game. As basketball has become more and more positionless it’s more about being the best at specific skills than it is being the best at a certain position.

For previous articles, look here:

Best Scorers

Best Rebounders

Best Passers

Three point shooting has never been more important in basketball than it is in the current day. The way modern basketball is played, any team that has two players considered non-shooters on the floor at the same time is seriously hampering their offensive capabilities. A recent saying is “any player who isn’t a shooter, is a center.” Their lack of outside shooting ability limits them to playing close to the basket, which hurts the spacing of the team and often forces teammates to settle for inefficient midrange shots.

Given how important shooting is, having the best shooters can be important. Lots of different factors determine what a good shooter is. It is not simply a question of who has the best percentage. That being said, as a general rule a player shooting between 32%-34% is a roughly average shooter. A player who shoots 40%+ is considered elite. Other important factors include being able to hit contested shots, being able to shoot on the move, shooting after coming off of a screen, shooting off the dribble, and more.

Honorable Mention – Reese Waters, SDSU. 

Before getting hurt last season Waters was shooting 45% from deep. He was hitting shots standing still, and on the move, and off the dribble. Then he got hurt in the conference opener and never regained his form. If he is back and healthy he can show that those numbers weren’t a fluke. 

  1. David Douglas Jr, Fresno State –

Douglas doesn’t have as flashy of percentages as some other players, but he is probably the best at getting open looks. His ability to find holes in the defense and get uncontested shots off is elite. When a defender is close by he struggles with accuracy, but when he successfully loses his defender he connects on roughly 40% of his shots. 

  1. Tucker Anderson, Utah State –

Standing at 6’9, Anderson has an advantage of being able to shoot over most defenders. Regardless of whether there is a defender in front of him Anderson shot about 40% in catch and shoot situations last season. Anderson excels at hitting shots off of kick outs, he is also great playing in pick and pop situations, and can hit shots coming off of screens as well, albeit less efficiently.

  1. Xavier Dusell, Nevada –

Dusell has made a whole career off of being able to shoot the ball. He took 216 three’s last season and connected on 84 of them, good for 39%. Dusell also seems unaffected by the defense, as he connected on 40.5% of his shots when guarded. He excels at shooting both in spot up as well as transition situations. His one weakness is shooting on the move or coming off screens. Shooting off the dribble and coming off of screens were both sub 30% shots for Dusell last season. Alowing him to shoot off the catch optimizes his abilities.

  1. Beau Becker, Air Force –

Do not leave this man open behind the arc. Becker hit 52.5% of his open jump shots last season. When Becker is given time to shoot he treats the ball like a laser guided missile. Playing tough defense can disrupt his shot, so defenses have to choose whether or not to help and leave Becker open, or not help and give up something else. Given how good Becker is, sticking to him like glue is the best bet.

  1. Dontaie Allen, Wyoming –

What makes Dontaie Allen stick out as a shooter is his ability to hit shots on the move. Most players who shoot high percentages do so solely in stand still, catch and shoot situations. Allen didn’t get many chances to show his movement shooting ability at Western Kentucky, but Allen is great at hitting shots even when he doesn’t have his feet set. He can come off screens or relocate behind help and hit the shot, which is how shooters can truly break a defense.

 

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Basketball Preseason Series: Best Passers

Contact/Follow @aztecbreakdown Over the weeks leading up to the season Mountain West Wire will be looking at the best players at different aspects of the game. As basketball has become more and more positionless it’s more about being the best at …

 

Contact/Follow @aztecbreakdown

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Over the weeks leading up to the season Mountain West Wire will be looking at the best players at different aspects of the game. As basketball has become more and more positionless it’s more about being the best at specific skills than it is being the best at a certain position.

For previous articles, look here:

Best Scorers

Best Rebounders

One of the best attributes any player can have is to make their teammates better. Usually that is accomplished through passing the ball. Getting a teammate the ball in the right spot, at the right time, helps the teammate be more efficient. It’s easier to hit a three point shot off the catch than it is to hit one off the dribble. It’s easier for a big man to score when rolling to the basket and receiving a pocket pass than it is for a big man to score when posting up. Great passers also have cumulative teamwide effects of helping all players feel involved in the offense, making them try harder both offensively as well as defensively. Big men are more likely to run to rim run in transition if they believe they’ll get rewarded for their efforts by getting the ball. Cutters are more likely to cut hard off the ball if they believe that there’s a chance they’ll get the ball for an easy layup or open jump shot. And when players are engaged offensively, it often results in better defensive engagement as well. So a great passer can really elevate the ceiling of a team to be higher than the sum of its parts. 

One lesser known metric that will be used to evaluate the players is called Box Creation. It takes box score stats and estimates the number of shots a player creates for their teammates on a per 100 possession basis. So a score of seven means that for every 100 possessions a player played, they created seven shots for their teammates. It is similar to potential assists, although it includes more factors, such as the gravity a player generates to help them create for others.

With the importance of good passers established, here are the best passers in the Mountain West this season.

Jordan Nesbitt, Wyoming – Jordan Nesbitt is a type of player that is becoming more rare in basketball. Nesbitt is a great passer despite his relative inability to score efficiently. Most players have a certain bar of scoring that they can use to help draw defensive attention and open up passing lanes. Nesbitt doesn’t have that. Given the lack of scoring acumen, Nesbitt’s passing becomes more impressive, and slightly nudges him ahead of a few other candidates for this list. It helps that he is 6’6” tall and can see over most defenders placed in front of him. His assist rate of 28.7 finished in the top-100 against D1 competition. He averaged 4.3 assists per game on an assist to turnover ratio of 1.7:1. How new coach Sundance Wicks deploys Nesbitt will be a storyline early on for Wyoming fans.

Alvaro Cardenas, Boise State – Cardenas 5.5 assists per game was the 4th best mark in the conference last season. His 2.7:1 assist to turnover ratio made it even better. His Box Creation score of 7.72 was the fifth best in the conference last season, and three of the four players above him have left the conference. Playing for Boise State may result in his counting stats going down as he won’t be necessary for him to generate as much offense, but his passing efficiency should go up as he plays with higher level teammates. 

Donovan Dent, New Mexico – Donovan Dent is probably the best point guard in the conference. His combination of skills make him an elite player, but his passing is next level. Dent averaged 5.4 assists per game last season, and had a season high of 14 assists against Utah State. Add to that a 2.4:1 assist to turnover ratio, and an assist rate that ranked 51st nationally, and it’s hard to argue that Dent isn’t an elite passer. Dent also finished second in the conference in Box Creation with a score of 8.75. Given the potential increase in shooting threats on the Lobos roster, it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Dent to average 6+ assists per game next season. 

Dedan Thomas, UNLV – As far as raising the level of his teammates, Thomas may be the best of the bunch. He is arguably the best tough shot maker in the conference. In the true fashion of a modern day point guard, he uses that scoring ability to accentuate his passing. He’s so good with it that coach Kruger is building the entire UNLV offense around Thomas’ skill set. As a freshman Thomas averaged over 5 assists per game, and had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.3:1. His Box Creation score of 7.58 wasn’t as elite as players like Isaiah Stevens or Donovan Dent last season, but it was still 6th best in the conference as a freshman. His ability should inly improve as his game continues to develop.

Drake Allen, Utah State – Drake Allen has impressive passing numbers. He averaged 4.3 assists per game, his assist rate was the 40th best assist rate in the nation, and he had a better than 2:1 assist to turnover ratio. What is even more impressive is that he accomplished those feats playing for a Utah Valley team that runs a terrible offensive system. He got no help from the system, and little help from his teammates. The team had no shooters, and few threats around the rim. Posting those numbers, given the situation he was in, takes a borderline herculean effort. This season Allen should be even better having players like Ian Martinez and Aubin Gateretse around.

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Basketball Preseason Series: Best Rebounders

Contact/Follow @aztecbreakdown Over the weeks leading up to the season Mountain West Wire will be looking at the best players at different aspects of the game. As basketball has become more and more positionless it’s more about being the best at …

Contact/Follow @aztecbreakdown

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Over the weeks leading up to the season Mountain West Wire will be looking at the best players at different aspects of the game. As basketball has become more and more positionless it’s more about being the best at specific skills than it is being the best at a certain position.

For previous articles, look here:

Best Scorers

A great former Mountain West basketball player once exclaimed that “The board man gets paid.” For what it’s worth, that player will be earning over 49 million dollars in the NBA this season, so he may have had a point. Scoring gets all the highlights, but elite players and coaches constantly talk about how defense and rebounding are key to winning championships. Every fan knows a game that their team would’ve won if they had simply grabbed a rebound at a key moment. The players listed below understand how important rebounding is to winning games.

5. Jared Coleman Jones, San Diego State –

Last year’s Aztecs team had the worst defensive rebounding rate of any Aztecs team since 2019. The Aztecs lost a couple games due to being unable to end a good defensive possession with a rebound. Jared Coleman Jones should help correct that weakness this season. His defensive rebounding rate of 24% ranked 70th nationally. He really knows how to get after the ball. He didn’t do much offensive rebounding at Middle Tennessee, and he may not be asked to at San Diego State, although it’s not out of the question and there’s reason to believe he could be better on that end if he wanted to. 

4. O’Mar Stanley, Boise State –

O’Mar Stanley is better overall, but is also somewhat the opposite of Jared Coleman Jones. Defensively, Stanley’s rate of 17.5% is really good, but the offensive end is where he truly impacts games. His offensive rate of 12.3% ranked 76th nationally last season. Almost 18% of Stanley’s total points came off of putbacks. His aggression on the offensive end will continue to lead to easy points for the Broncos. 

3. Aubin Gateretse, Utah State –

Gateretse has shown to be an elite rebounder on both ends of the floor. His offensive rebounding is a central part of his offense, which bodes well because his offensive rebounding rate ranked 40th nationally last season. His defensive rebounding rate ranked 219th nationally. There is no question he knows how to get after it on the glass. His numbers may take a dip this season though. Partly because he will spend a lot of time playing next to a true 7-footer in Isaac Johnson, who is a great rebounder himself. Secondly, the Atlantic Sun conference doesn’t have the same level of competition as the Mountain West. His numbers last season took hits against top-100 teams, so it is not out of the question that he may not be quite as elite.

2. Nelly Junior Joseph, New Mexico –

NJJ had great rebounding numbers his first year at New Mexico. He collected 8.2 rebounds per game and had double digits rebound rates on both ends of the floor. Nationally, his offensive rebounding rate of 11.3% ranked 128th, and defensively his rebounding rate of 21.2% ranked 154th. What is even more impressive is he could’ve gotten more rebounds if he didn’t have J.T. Toppin playing next to him. This season he will be asked to get even more rebounds, and he should be able to do it. No one should be surprised if Nelly Junior Joseph averages a double-double this season.

1. Robert Vaihola, San Jose State – 

It is pretty hard to argue that Robert Vaihola isn’t the best rebounder in the conference. The 6’8 Big man plays bigger than his size would suggest and gets after it on the glass. He plays as if rebounding is the most important aspect of playing the game. He sat out last season after having season ending foot surgery, but is expected to be ready to go this season. His defensive rebounding rate of 20.1% is great, but he really excels on the offensive end. In 2023, his last healthy season, he led the conference with an offensive rebounding rate of 17.7%. Nationally he had the 5th best rate. He is elite on that end of the floor, which leads to second chance points for the Spartans. Defensively Vaihola should be able to collect a lot of rebounds after Diongue forces misses at the rim.

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Basketball Preseason Series: Best Scorers

Contact/Follow @aztecbreakdown Over the weeks leading up to the season Mountain West Wire will be looking at the best players at different aspects of the game. As basketball has become more and more positionless it’s more about being the best at …

Contact/Follow @aztecbreakdown

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Over the weeks leading up to the season Mountain West Wire will be looking at the best players at different aspects of the game. As basketball has become more and more positionless it’s more about being the best at specific skills than it is being the best at a certain position.

When it all comes down to it, basketball is about scoring more points than your opponent. Having players that can put the ball through the hoop is key to accomplishing that goal. Doing so in high volume isn’t enough though. If a player scores 20 points a game but takes 30 shots to do so, they aren’t helping the team. Players need to score in volume, and do so efficiently. Players can’t be elite scorers if they only possess one of those two qualities.

Honorable Mention: Keyshawn Williams, Colorado State – Before being injured, Williams was averaging almost 18 points per game, on a solid 56% True Shooting percentage. That was two seasons ago, and took place over 13 games, so there’s no telling if those marks would have held over a full season, or if Williams will return to that level post injury. If he is fully recovered though, he will likely deserve a spot on this list.

Donovan Dent, New Mexico – Dent runs the New Mexico offense, and is the first option for the Lobos. Last season he scored 14 points per game. College basketball is a guards game, and Dent is arguably the best in the conference. His play in transition is elite, leading to easy baskets. What helps Dent be a great scorer is his ability to shoot off the dribble. He ranks in the 78th percentile in jump shots off the dribble. His ability to gain separation and lose his defenders helps him get clean looks and keep his efficiency up. His only down side is that he isn’t great from the free throw line, shooting only 68%. It’s not a terrible mark, but it’s below average for a guard.

Deyton Albury, Utah State – Albury played in transition more than most any player in the country while at Queens University. That will likely continue with the Aggies, as it is a key facet in Albury’s game. In the half court he is less efficient, but not enough to hurt the team or his overall efficiency. He maintained a true shooting percentage of 56%, helped by his ability to draw fouls and get to the free throw line. He scored 17 points per game last season. That number may go down a bit as he’ll have more offensive talent around him, but the tendency to play in transition should translate.

Ian Martinez, Utah State – Martinez scored 13.3 points per game as a third option behind Great Osobor and Darius Brown. Having two other players draw so much defensive attention allowed Martinez to play extremely efficiently. He had a 62% true shooting percentage, the highest of any player on this list. In overseas play this summer Martinez was the leading scorer on the team, and displayed a versatile scoring skill set. As defenses key in on him his efficiency will likely drop some, but his floor is still higher than most players in the conference. 

Kobe Sanders, Nevada – In the past five years only 3 Mountain West players have scored 20+ points per game (Jaedon LeDee, Bryce Hamilton, Jalen Harris). Sanders scored 19.7 last season in the Big West. The leave of competition is tougher in the Mountain West, but Sanders has shown he can put up points. His combination of size and ball handling ability makes him tough to guard, similar to Kenan Blackshear last season, but Sanders is even taller. Most guards can’t contest a 6’8 shooter.Thanks in part to his size, Sanders scored 1.123 points per possession in isolation last season, ranking in the 91st percentile in that category. He also finished in the 75th percentile in pick and roll scoring per possession. With the departures of Blackshear and Lucas, the Wolfpack will be looking to Sanders to put up points in bunches. 

Tyson Degenhart, Boise State – What makes Degenhart such a good scorer is his versatility. At 6’8, 235 lbs he is big and strong enough to play around the rim, and also skilled enough to play around the perimeter. His outside shot isn’t great, but it’s good enough to keep opponents honest, helping him rack up 1.093 points per possession when spotting up around the outside, good for 82nd percentile nationally. He also scored 1.112 points per possession when posting up last season, which finished 13th in the nation among players with at least 100 post up possessions. For context, all american Jaedon LeDee finished 16th in the same metric, and player of the year Zach Edey finished 27th. Degenhart’s versatility lets him truly attack big players off the dribble, and small players in the post.

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What to expect from the Mountain West and friends?

With a few new friends joining an already-enigmatic bunch, this is gearing up to be a very Mountain West-like season . Seven of the conference’s 12 teams will be showcasing a first-year head coach, one of which is returning to the Mountain West …

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With a few new friends joining an already-enigmatic bunch, this is gearing up to be a very Mountain West-like season. Seven of the conference’s 12 teams will be showcasing a first-year head coach, one of which is returning to the Mountain West coach and two of which still have an interim tag attached. Of those two, one is the youngest coach in the FBS and the other took the job so recently that it was his predecessor at Mountain West Media Days. To add to the strangeness and excitement, the 12-team playoff has arrived, providing a clear and defined path to the College Football Playoff. This has given the Mountain West a real opportunity and the stakes have never been higher. If things fall into place just right, the Mountain West championship could mean a chance to play in the College Football Playoff.  

The Mountain West is a tough league but until proven otherwise, it will appear to be a race to play, or replace, Boise State in the title match. The Broncos will have to ward off some formidable suitors. Fresno State, UNLV, and Wyoming will be gunning for a top spot. At the bottom, a trio of Nevada, New Mexico, and San Jose State will be looking to find their footing with the rest of the pack fitting somewhere in between.

Before we take a look at the conference, let’s take a look at the friends of the Mountain West. This year the Mountain West will have some visitors from the Pac-12. Oregon State and Washington State have both taken a beating on and off the field. Left behind as the only remaining members of their conference the two teams couldn’t even field a schedule. The two teams entered into a scheduling agreement with the Mountain West, so even though they won’t be eligible for the title game, they will be playing a Mountain West schedule. 

Washington State

Jake Dickert’s Washington State didn’t get the kindest draw in the Mountain West slate and doesn’t have the easiest non-conference schedule either. 

The Cougars open with Portland State, Texas Tech, Washington, San Jose State, and Boise State before their first bye. Portland and San Jose State represent winnable games, but the other three will be tough and they could pretty easily be 2-3 to open the season. 

Coming out of the bye they will be met with a tough game against Fresno State, at which point the season could be at a pretty dangerous juncture. After what could easily be a 2-4 start, the Cougars would have to win at least four of their last six games against Hawaii, San Diego State, Utah State, New Mexico, Oregon State, and Wyoming. It’s possible, but the path to six wins is a rocky one for Washington State this year. Wazzu should end up between 3-9 and 8-4. 

Oregon State

Oregon State is in slightly better shape and gets a slightly better draw. Like most of the Mountain West teams, the Beavers will be led by a first-year head coach in Trent Brady, who has been coaching defense within the program in some capacity since 2018. He was previously the defensive coordinator and linebackers coach. 

The schedule for the Beavers is broken up into three four-game pods broken up by bye weeks. Their first set includes Idaho State, San Diego State, Oregon, and Purdue. Oregon State should take care of the Mountain West portion of that schedule but will have a harder time against the Big Ten portion. 

After a bye, Oregon State will face Colorado State, Nevada, UNLV, and Cal. The Nevada schools stand out in this section of the schedule. The toughest team in this stretch is UNLV while the Wolf Pack will be in a rebuild. 

The final stretch starts with a game against another rebuilding team in San Jose State. Then the Beavers play at Air Force and host Washington State. Then the Beavers close their season on the road against Boise State. The Broncos won’t go down easy, but if the Beavers can survive against Air Force, the Beavers should best the Cougars, and a winning season should be in play even if they drop their season finale. Oregon State could land anywhere from 3-9 (though that seems like it would be a long shot) and 9-3. A record closer to 7-5 seems more reasonable. 

Air Force Falcons

Air Force is Air Force, and that’s just about all there is to it. Troy Calhoun, the longest-tenured coach in the Mountain West by a large margin, has amassed a record of 130-82. In his 18 years, his Falcons have only missed a bowl game five times. In the 13 bowl games they have gone to, they are 8-5. That’s probably indicative of what’s to come. 

The Falcons have plenty of holes to fill with a slew of departures headlined by quarterback Zac Larrier, but in Colorado Springs, it’s just rinse and repeat. The Falcons are coming off three consecutive bowl games and have won ten, ten, and nine games in the past three seasons. So, even with the substantial losses to the roster, anyone who has been watching Air Force for the past decade knows better than to count them out. 

The Falcons open conference play early and will host San Jose State in week two. Their week three matchup on the road against Baylor should be interesting. After that, they get a bye week and proceed with a pretty standard Air Force schedule with games against the rest of the Mountain West, Navy, and Army. They avoid Boise State, but travel to Laramie and host the Bulldogs. Air Force could go 4-8 on the low end or 9-3 on the high end. 

Boise State Broncos

As much as the other 11 teams — and their fan bases — hate to admit it, Mountain West football runs through Boise. This year looks like it won’t be different.

Much could be said about the dramatics of last season and the unlikely rise of an untested coach in Spencer Danielson, but none of that would discredit what is happening at Boise State. In fact, much could be said of the entire program, but not much discourse is necessary to sum up what the Broncos have. That’s all because of one Ashton Jeanty.

Jeanty is, without question, one of the most impressive ball carriers in the nation. He’s the best running back in the conference and one of the most dangerous offensive players. In a lackluster program, he can single handedly make up for deficiencies around him, be it insufficient help on offense or poor coaching. In a competent program, he can elevate the team from good to great and from great to titanic. The Broncos could have done anything this offseason and it wouldn’t matter one bit. As long as Jeanty is in a Bronco uniform, Boise State will be a contender. Boise State should expect to go between 9-3 and 11-1. 

Colorado State Rams

Colorado State is going into year three of the Jay Norvell experiment and it hasn’t gone as well as the Rams would have hoped when they poached the offensive tactician from Nevada. All the Rams have really managed to do so far is sabotage their conference foe on the way to mediocrity (Nevada has gone 2-20 while Colorado State has gone 8-16 since then). The Rams hope that will change this season. 

The Rams haven’t seen a bowl game since 2017, when they capped off a five-year run of bowl appearances, but got just about as close as possible last year. They got within a game of bowl eligibility last season and came up just short of adding that last win multiple times, including a 43-35 overtime loss at Colorado, a 25-23 loss at UNLV, a 24-15 loss at Wyoming, and a 27-24 loss at Hawaii. 

As is standard with Norvell’s teams, the story here will be the offense. Norvell likes to throw the ball around and he has a team that should be able to pass to his liking. Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi showed flashes of being a really high-level quarterback last year and Tory Horton is one of the best wide receivers in the conference. Horton was All-Mountain First team last season and Fowler-Nicolosi earned an honorable mention. Horton was also named to the Preseason All-Conference team this year. 

Overall, the Rams should be able to take a step forward this year. If everything clicks, Norvell, Fowler-Nicolosi, and Horton could create a solid, if not dangerous, offense. The defense, led by linebacker Chase Wilson, should at least be able to keep up. 

An adept defense and a Jay Norvell offense would certainly do the trick in Fort Collins, but only time will tell if the Rams will hit those marks. Colorado State should finish within 4-8 and 8-4. 

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Air Force Football 2024: Genesis

Air Force Football: Genesis 2024 Can Air Force Keep Thriving with a Roster Overhaul? Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire We’ve got an updated schedule pic.twitter.com/nbW0xG7F1j – Air Force Football (@AF_Football) July 1, 2024 The last time we saw the …

Air Force Football: Genesis 2024

Can Air Force Keep Thriving with a Roster Overhaul?

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

 

The last time we saw the Air Force Fightin’ Falcons in game action, they wore out the James Madison Dukes by a score of 31-21 in the Armed Forces Bowl, back in December. A lot has happened since then.

WHAT HAS HAPPENED

A quarter of last year’s starters on defense are presently on NFL rosters, Falcon Stadium has undertaken a spectacular renovation, more than 3,600 yards from last years offense graduated in the spring, along with the entire offensive line that was one of the best in the nation. And that is only covering the changes this team is experiencing at a very high level. So you get the picture, it’s a new season, and a very new team.

Noone is going to cry for Air Force though, nor should they. A very experienced coaching staff has excelled at developing players through their program that has navigated such changes with little to no turbulence. In fact, they tend to thrive in the given circumstances. If you want a detailed breakdown of the talent turnover and just how good of a coaching staff resides in Colorado Springs, Nittany Falcon wrote an excellent piece which you can find here.

WHAT SHOULD WE EXPECT

Anytime you lose generational talents like Trey Taylor, Bo Richter and a deep experienced offensive line unit, a drop off is going to be expected. The schedule does not allow for a slow immersion for a team of majority new starters. After their week one FCS Opener against Merrimack, the rest of the schedule is relentless starting with their week two Conference opener against San Jose State. This is a Spartan team now led by someone very familiar with Air Force in long time Navy coach, Ken Niumatalolo.

After that, the Falcons head to Waco, Texas, where Baylor will be seeking retribution for the thumping Air Force handed them a two years ago at Bowl Season. This is their schedule in a microcosm, week to week matchups with familiar opponents, bitter rivals and of course the Beavers who for some reason are still in the Pac2. Or is it Tupac, because ‘Life Goes On’? Either, way, the 2024 schedule is quite interesting week to week.

For the second year in a row, Troy Calhoun and crew will be breaking in a new starting quarterback, who in all likelihood will be John Busha. Last year saw this team come blazing out of the gates behind Zach Larrier. But this years team doesn’t have the experience surrounding Busha that Larrier did. Namely an entire offensive line of All-Conference performers, basically. While Busha won’t be flanked by an entirely new backfield, they will have to replace 2,000 yards of rushing production from John Lee Eldridge III, Owen Burke and Emmanuel Michel.

This is what makes college football beautiful though. The year to year transition of players and roster composition are always there, and the best programs have learned to navigate it. Troy Calhoun and the Air Force Falcons certainly have managed it quite well. So don’t fret, there is plenty to be excited about. Where there may be critical player losses, new stars will emerge.

For starters, Steed Lobotzke is the King Midas of offensive line coaches. It seems like he is turning out gold at every turn with his players. And that is not by luck, there isn’t a better coach at the position in the country. The ball carriers behind the new offensive line are going to be fine as well. Dylan Carson was just a hair under 500 yards for the season last year, averaging over seven yards per carry, while splitting carries with two other fullbacks.

 

Defensively, it’s easy to focus on massive losses by volume and talent as mentioned earlier. But returning are two of the best players in the conference at their positions in Payton Zdroik and Camby Goff. Many are quick to forget, Camby Goff was an All-Conference player before a week one injury ended his season last year.  This is a guy who played as a freshman and is a three-year starter bouncing between the secondary and that hybrid spur position. Sticking with the secondary, it is the one area that the Falcons return plenty of game experience. Zdroik down in the trenches is an absolute game wrecker and will help settle a lot of new pieces in the front seven.

The most experienced unit at Air Force has to be special teams. They return all of their starters from last season and are two deep with experience at kicker and punter. With a Lou Groza Watch List kicker in Matthew Dapore.  They may have to break in a new kick and punt returner to confidently put their hand in the air to signal a fair catch though.

nice to see

One of the things that I am most excited about has to be the surfacing of prominent recruits from recruiting classes of the past rearing on the roster. Full disclosure, we all know the roster which Air Force shares isn’t necessarily an indication of who you are going to see on the field. But a lot of the underclassmen, and those who went to the prep school sort of vanish from sight for a year or two to either never be seen again or in some cases surface as playmakers.

Here are some the guys for those who have been following the Falcon recruiting classes the past few years should be excited about as newcomers to the roster, or prime to take a leap in contributions.

OFFENSE

Alec Falk (OL), Tre Roberson (WR), Kade Frew (RB), Kaden Cloud (RB), Henry Rickels (OL), Bruin Fleischmann (TE) and converted quarterback Kemper Hodges (FB).

DEFENSE

Houston Hendrix (DB/LB), Kyle Chen, Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner (DB), Dallas Daley (LB), Blake Fletcher (LB), Luke Meyer (LB), Jack Curtis (DE), Zach Juckel (LB) and Hiroshi Carr (DB).

UP NEXT

Next week we will have our first season preview for Air Force as they prepare to take on Merrimack for their opener. While your waiting for the Falcons to kick off the season, take in some of the week zero offerings as New Mexico, Nevada and Hawai’i all play this week!

 

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College Football 25: The Mountain West Conference

CFB25: The Mountain West Conference According to EA Sports College Football 25, Nevada and Boise State will play for the Mountain West Conference Championship. Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire Just three empty Saturday’s stand between us and Week …

CFB25: The Mountain West Conference

According to EA Sports College Football 25, Nevada and Boise State will play for the Mountain West Conference Championship. 

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

Just three empty Saturday’s stand between us and Week Zero’s slate of games to kick off the NCAA Football season! I know, I know, it’s been a long off-season and we are all yearning for some game action. Well, there is some good news.

Two weeks ago, EA Sports finally released the College Football 25 video game after a decade long absence for their signature franchise series. To say this has been a much-anticipated return would be a colossal understatement. EA Sports sold over 2 million copies of their premium edition, which granted gamers access three days in advance of it’s announced July 19th standard release date.

As a long time enthusiast of this games series, I was one of the 2 million who secured early access. While there is no replacing a Saturday (or the myriad of other days that games are now played on) of Mountain West action, CFB25 provides a nice bridge to the official start of the 2024 season.

Recognizing that not every college football fan has, or will purchase the CFB25 game, we want to share some of the fun with everyone. So here is what we’ve done.

WE’VE SIMULATED THE 2024 SEASON

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Using the Dynasty feature on the CFB25 game, we’ve simulated the entire 2024 football season. In case you’re wondering, Jacksonville State did make the playoff in our simulation as the lone representative from the Group of Five. As if being snubbed from the playoff wasn’t bad enough, the MWC fans aren’t going to be happy to learn that BYU didn’t just make the college football playoff but earned a bye week as well.

So sure, the introduction of the new 12-Team College Football Playoff is exciting, but we’re here for the Mountain West Action! Even though no Mountain West Conference team made the playoff in our simulation, there were plenty of interesting yields from the season.

HOW THE (MOUNTAIN) WEST WAS WON

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Probably not surprising to many, the Boise State Broncos were your Mountain West Conference Champions. Who did they have to defeat to win the championship? Nevada. That’s right, the Nevada Wolf Pack weren’t just Bowl eligible, but were nearly crowned Conference Champs in our simulation.

Joining Boise State and Nevada in Bowl eligibility were Air Force, Fresno State, San Diego State, New Mexico and Hawai’i.

AWARDS AND RECOGNITION

One of the first things that stood out was the New Mexico Lobos surrendered the fewest points defensively. One of the reasons for the strong defensive showing was their defensive end, Gabriel Lopez who recorded 15.5 sacks on the year. Lopez was third in voting for the Nations Best Defensive End award. It didn’t hurt that Tavian Combs was tied for the Conference lead in interceptions too.

The All-Conference First Team was littered with Broncos, as seven players from Boise State earned spots. Brayden Schager represented Hawai’i well, as he was the recognized as the top quarterback in the Conference. Somewhat shocking, Ashton Jeanty was not the first team running back, nor was Tory Horton an All-Conference nominee at all. However, Jeanty was on the second team, while Horton actually sustained a season ending injury on the simulation. Injury is the only thing that could keep that guy from snagging passes.

It was also interesting to see that three Mountain West quarterbacks threw for 30 or more touchdowns. Malachi Nelson (38), Brayden Schager (32), Devon Dampier (31) and Spencer Petras (30) all cleared 30 tudd’s and 3,000 yards on the year! And not surprising at all, Air Force’s Dylan Carson led the Conference in Rushing yards. Video game or not, get acquainted with that name.

SNUBBED

It was a lot of fun running this simulation and seeing how some of our favorite teams and players fared. But the level of disrespect for the Mountain West was undeniable. No teams in the playoff. Noone ranked in the top 25. And there wasn’t a single player from the Conference recognized as a consensus All-American.

Coaches across the Mountain West may want to print this and hang it up as motivation for the season. Our EA Sports College Football 25 season may have slept on the Mountain West, but we know better. We just can’t wait for the actual season to kick off and do the fact checks!

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Utah State Basketball: Danny Sprinkle Off to Big 10, Hired By Washington Huskies After Just One Season in Logan

Utah State Basketball: Danny Sprinkle Hired By Washington Huskies After Just One Season in Logan After just one season, Sprinkle’s amazing elevation of the Aggie program earns him the Big Ten job. Contact/Follow @HardwoodTalk & @MWCwire Danny …

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Utah State Basketball: Danny Sprinkle Hired By Washington Huskies After Just One Season in Logan

After just one season, Sprinkle’s amazing elevation of the Aggie program earns him the Big Ten job.

Contact/Follow @HardwoodTalk & @MWCwire

Danny Sprinkle announces resignation amid being hired as the new Men’s Basketball coach at Washington.

The Utah State Men’s Basketball program enjoyed one of their most successful seasons in awhile. Which is a huge statement given the work done in years past during the Ryan Odom & Craig Smith eras in Logan. With only two & three seasons under their belts before other Universities came calling.

Now former Aggies coach Danny Sprinkle has them beat. Departing Utah State after just one season, an extremely memorable season at that, for a Big Ten job.

At Utah State

Sprinkle arrived in Logan last spring, after a second straight trip to the NCAA Tournament at his alma mater Montana State, turned into a job offer. He hit the ground running immediately. Tasked with assembling an entirely new roster, with no returning players from the previous season. Something he did immediately & did well.

Bringing in All-Big Sky Bobcats Great Osobor & Darius Brown II with him from Bozeman as many transitioning coaches tend to do. Adding them to a roster filled with high major transfers, impactful mid-major scorers & good ole freshman. A concoction very little head coaches anywhere, could turn into a title contender overnight, or even over an entire summer. Don’t tell Sprinkle that though.

Because that is simply what he did, after being predicted to finish 9th in the Mountain West back in October. The Aggies were the feel good story of the year almost out of the gate. Posting just one loss during non-conference play & securing wins against some of college basketball’s best. Utah State was primed while also being on everybody’s radar for a run in conference play.

The Aggies managed a 28-7 (14-4, in MWC) record (top-10 Win % in program history) to secure their first ever outright Mountain West Conference Regular Season Title ever under their first year head coach. Something no Mountain West first year head coach has done without having some involvement in the program prior like an associate head coach or assistant role.

Sprinkle earned Steve Fisher Coach of the Year honors for his tremendous first season in the Mountain West. Great Osobor earned Player of the Year & All-MWC First Team awards as well as Darius Brown II earning All-MWC First Team honors.

Utah State Aggies head coach Danny Sprinkle talks to Utah State Aggies guard Darius Brown II (10) at the end of the game, Sunday, March 24, 2024, during the second round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Purdue Boilermakers defeated the Utah State Aggies 106-67.

All of this lead to Utah State’s second straight NCAA Tournament appearance as an at-large bid. Giving them the No. 8 seed and their first win in the big dance since Aggie legend Stew Morrill did it back in 2001. Danny Sprinkle’s group had their tournament run end on Sunday, as they fell 106-67 to No. 1 Seed Purdue, whom plenty of folks have as a favorite to win the whole thing next month.

It’s a legacy that will feel like the blink of an eye for some fans but a highlight in the history books for others. Sprinkle did a tremendous job in Logan, earning his 100th career win back in January in the process, in just five short years.

He is leaving for what can be viewed as a tough job that just got even tougher, but his track record of turning around programs speaks for itself, let’s see if he can take that success to Big Ten country next season.

The New Job 

Seattle & the Pacific Northwest definitely have their draw for workers of any industry. But the University of Washington has become even more of a football school with it’s recent run to the CFP National Championship game. Leaving their men’s basketball program, their only other sport operating in the black in 2023, well behind in terms of national relevance & competition.

The school parted ways with seven year Head Coach Mike Hopkins on March 8th. After just one Pac-12 title & one NCAA Tournament appearance (both in 2018-2019) and a 118-106 record amassed in Seattle since 2017.

Danny Sprinkle emerged as a candidate to keep an eye on almost immediately, even before Hopkin’s official sacking. With ties to the region as a player & coach at Montana State and having being born in Pullman, WA to former Husky Defensive Back Bill Sprinkle.

As a hot name due to the job done in Logan to that point & his ties to the program, many who followed the conference didn’t like the odds of keeping one of the nation’s up and coming young coaches in the Mountain West much longer.

It’s a tough job because, no matter the 5-star recruits or high major transfers you bring it, at such a high level of basketball the X’s & O’s need to be twice as strong. And that was in the Pac-12, not the Big Ten. Which is constantly in the running for the prestige & recognition that comes with being the nation’s “best” or most competitive conference nationally every year, per KenPom ($).

Whereas the Pac-12, even with it’s money, infrastructure, history & high class destinations compares similar to the Mountain West more so than the Big Ten metrically.

It’s essentially a brand new job at Washington, with no history or trophies to show in it’s new home. But, with an athletics department & boosters aware of what it will take to stay relevant & competitive in the Big Ten. Sprinkle may appear like a bargain deal as a still young & “inexperienced” coach, but he may just be the right man to take this program into the promise land.

A place the conference has been unable to even see on the horizon since the Lorenzo Romar days in Seattle. A time that saw the Huskies make seven trips to the NCAA Tournament (seven in the first ten years), three runs to the Sweet 16, earn two Pac-12 regular season titles & three Tournament Championships in fifteen seasons.

Utah State Outlook

Utah State is becoming a springboard for up and coming coaches in recent years. After decades of stability under Morrill, the Aggies have seen three of their four coaches move on to bigger & sometimes lateral opportunities. The idea of building a life in Logan may seem unappealing for some, but the community supports the program, players seem attracted to the University & coaches can win here.

The guys over at KSL Sports have the first list of candidates I have seen so far. But given how attractive the job has become in recent years, I don’t see Utah State having a hard time finding the right candidate for the job going forward.

What may be more interesting to follow is how many Aggie players will hit the portal, by their own volition or not in the coming days.

Larry Muniz covers college basketball as a writer for Mountain West Wire and WAC Hoops Digest. Also as a co-host of the college basketball podcast “Hoops Talk W/Jay & Larry”. He is also a USWBA Member.

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2024 NCAA Tournament: Utah State Basketball-A First Look at the TCU Horned Frogs

2024 NCAA Tournament: Utah State Basketball-A First Look at the TCU Horned Frogs Who are the Horned Toads? Contact/Follow @HardwoodTalk & @MWCwire MWC Regular Season Champion Utah State draw battle hardened TCU in First Round matchup in Indy. First …

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2024 NCAA Tournament: Utah State Basketball-A First Look at the TCU Horned Frogs

Who are the Horned Toads?

Contact/Follow @HardwoodTalk & @MWCwire

MWC Regular Season Champion Utah State draw battle hardened TCU in First Round matchup in Indy.

First year Head Coach Danny Sprinkle has led Utah State to the NCAA Tournament. With an at-large ticket punched, thanks to one of the more memorable inaugural seasons in Mountain West history in Logan. As the Aggies finished the year with a 28-7 (15-5) record, sole possession of the Regular Season Title & ranked 22nd in the final AP Poll.

Despite losing to San Diego State in the semifinals of the conference tournament on Friday in Las Vegas. The Aggies regular season performance gave them the second highest seed of any Mountain West team, go figure.

With that, fans in Logan heard their team’s name called & paired with former Mountain West member TCU. These two haven’t met on the hardwood since 1982, when Utah State secured the 84-59 win over the visiting Horned Frogs. It definitely was some time ago, as TCU was still a part of the disbanded Southwest Conference & Utah State was a part of the Pacific Coast Athletic Association, now the Big West.

Who Are The Horned Frogs

Some fans around the conference remember TCU from their shared time in the WAC together and later when they joined the Mountain West in 2005. Yes, there were plenty of memories made for teams in Fort Worth. But as the collapse of the Big East began what would become a decade’s worth of conference realignment, the Horned Frogs took the opportunity to rise to the Power 5 level & join the Big 12.

The football driven move made sense for TCU, who never won a Mountain West title of either sort & never finished higher than 5th in the conference. It was a program stagnant and now prepping for a move to one of the country’s most competitive conferences featuring blue blood Kansas & a plethora of other big names.

It was a move that saw the Horned Frogs finish last or second to last place the next four years in their new conference before the coaching carousel blessed them with one of their own.

Coach

Since departing the conference a little over ten years ago, TCU has only had two head coaches, very small by Mountain West standards. Trent Johnson was hired as the man to take the program to the Big 12 promise land. After taking LSU, Stanford & Nevada to the NCAA Tournament before ultimately resigning after a total of four seasons in Baton Rouge.

His time in Fort Worth was short, with only one season finished above .500, it was time to go in a new direction. In comes former starting point guard & coaching heavy hitter Jamie Dixon. Who as a player back in the late eighties, led TCU to the big dance before falling to Notre Dame in the Second Round.

After his playing days, Dixon spent time in the assistant coaching ranks, mostly under UCLA coaching legend Ben Howland. Dixon inherited the Pittsburgh program from his former boss in 2003.

Building the Panther program into a national & Big East powerhouse. Taking Pitt to the NCAA Tournament eleven of his thirteen years with the Panthers, including three Sweet 16 appearances & a run to the Elite eight in 2009.

But what many consider to be a botched move by Pittsburgh’s new AD at the time, sent him back to TCU in 2016. A move he says was timed perfectly, perfect for Horned Frog fans.

Dixon has led his alma mater to four NCAA Tournament appearances in eight seasons. Including three straight with their participation in this year’s tournament announced Saturday. A result fans of the program for the last few decades only dreamed off, but with a track record like Dixon’s, came in no time at all.

Star Players

Sr. F-Emmanuel Miller (6’7, 215)

Stats: 15.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 2.7 APG & 1.1 SPG in 33 Games, 33 Starts

Sr. G-Jameer Nelson Jr. (6’2, 205)

Stats: 11.3 PPG, 3.3 APG, 2.6 RPG & 2.0 SPG in 33 Games, 21 Starts

Sr. G-Micah Peavy (6’8, 215)

Stats: 11.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.7 APG & 1.3 SPG in 33 Games, 33 Starts

How Did They Get Here

Like the Mountain West, the Big 12 was an absolute minefield to navigate from top to bottom. TCU utilized a hot 7-0 start in non-conference play & 11-2 finish to prepare an expected gauntlet in a new look Big 12.

The conference added BYU, Cincinnati, UCF & Houston ahead of the season. Creating the largest version of the conference ever at fourteen teams, before the expected departure of Oklahoma & Texas to the SEC this summer.

So in a conference no member has ever navigated before, for the first & only time ever, TCU went to work. Finishing the regular season with a 21-12 (9-9, 7th in Big 12) record, they joined the conference tournament as a No. 8 seed & a First Round Bye. Their first opponent was the Oklahoma Sooners, whom TCU had only faced once in conference play (A 80-71 win at home in January).

Jamie Dixon’s team survived their Second Round opponent, to advance with a 77-70 win over the Sooners, thanks to a monster 26 point performance from senior Emanuel Miller. The Quarterfinals were not as kind to the Horned Frogs. As No. 1 seeded Houston used a poor shooting night from deep by TCU & stout defense to defeat Dixon’s team 60-45, enroute to the championship game on Saturday.

It wasn’t the way any team wants to go out in March. But finishing in the top-half of what KenPom.com ($) has ranked as the top conference in the entire country by a very credible margin, has it’s perks.

One of those perks being a punched ticket to this year’s Big Dance. Facing No. 8 Utah State as a No. 9 seed in the First Round of the Midwest bracket in Indianapolis, IN on Friday afternoon 5:55 PM MT.

Biggest Wins

Saturday January13th, Home vs. No. 2 Houston 68-67

Saturday January 27th, Away @ Baylor 105-102 3OT

Tuesday January 30th, Home vs. No. 15 Texas Tech 85-78

The Metrics

NET Ranking:  42nd

KenPom:  33rd

Larry Muniz covers college basketball as a writer for Mountain West Wire and WAC Hoops Digest. Also as a co-host of the college basketball podcast “Hoops Talk W/Jay & Larry”. He is also a USWBA Member.

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2024 MWC Tournament: Three Reasons Why the Utah State Aggies Can Win It All

Can the recently crowned MWC Regular Season Champions Pull off the Double? 2024 MWC Tournament: Why the Utah State Aggies can win it all. Contact/Follow @HardwoodTalk & @MWCwire Utah State travels to Las Vegas in search of their second league title …

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Can the recently crowned MWC Regular Season Champions Pull off the Double?

2024 MWC Tournament: Why the Utah State Aggies can win it all.

Contact/Follow @HardwoodTalk & @MWCwire

Utah State travels to Las Vegas in search of their second league title in a weeks time, here’s how they can win it all.

It’s that time folks, March Madness. A time for the sport to receive a huge boost in national attention & fanfare. But before we can all tune into non-stop basketball from breakfast to dinner. Several tickets still need to be punched.

The same holds true in the Mountain West. As teams prepare to kick off what could be four straight days of basketball for some & a quit exit for others on Wednesday afternoon in Las Vegas.

There isn’t necessarily a defined easy path to the title game. Even though some won’t have to hit the floor until day two. Everyone has a chance to to climb the ladder come Saturday. But the recently crowned Mountain West Regular Season Champions Utah State may have the leg up on the competition.

The Track Record

First year Head Coach Danny Sprinkle knows a little something about punched tickets & cutting down nets. The former Montana State head man led his alma mater to back-to-back conference championships & NCAA Tournament appearances, their first in program history.  Last year’s tournament matchup against Kansas State of the Big 12 wasn’t your typical lower seed early exit either.

They hit the national stage & gave No. 3 Kansas State a run for their money in a potential upset as the No. 14 seed. Montana State gained the lead early on over their Big 12 foe. The Wildcats would go on several runs to create distance between them & Danny Sprinkle’s group. Though the Bobcats didn’t go quietly, keeping the deficit to single digits most of the way.

Montana State would fall 77-65 to one of the more dangerous teams to emerge in last season’s tournament. Kansas State would go on a run to the Elite Eight before falling to the tournament’s true Cinderella, Florida Atlantic. Something that might not have happened if the Bobcats would have pulled off the upset.

Has the right team been assembled in Logan that can give Coach Sprinkle his third straight trip to the NCAA Tournament & a chance at securing his first win?

The Fire Power

Aside from having an experienced head coach leading the team to the Field of 68 promise land, you’ll need the players capable of scoring enough points to get you there. The Aggies have plenty of that, with the second highest scoring average in the conference & a top-40 adjusted offensive efficiency ranking on KenPom.

Danny Sprinkle also has four different double-digit scorers to rely on with all four capable of huge scoring outbursts any given night. With the quartet of Great Osobor, Ian Martinez, Darius Brown II & Mason Falslev holding 25 combined 20+ point game performances in the regular season.

Also, to put current season averages aside. Brown II & Osobor have NCAA Tournament experience from their time at Montana State together. While Martinez played in the tournament himself last year at Maryland. Where the Terrapins went 1-1 before falling 73-51 to No. 1 seed Alabama in the Second Round in the South Region.

With a deep, highly capable & experienced squad. The Aggies have the chance to win their first game in the big dance since 2001, in Stew Morrill’s third season in Logan. To give them the opportunity, they’ll need the right man running the show in Las Vegas, luckily they have just the player.

The Floor General

For any good team to flourish in a high stress environment such as the Thomas & Mack Center in March, you need a good leader. It doesn’t get much better around the Mountain West than Aggie point guard Darius Brown II. The graduate transfer from Montana State has been a key piece to what could easily be described as the feel good story of the college basketball season.

He’s made a jump in competition twice in the past two off-seasons. Each time locking in & stepping up his own level of play to whatever is needed for his new squad, usually being coached by Sprinkle.

His career high averages in points (12.4 PPG), assists (6.4 APG), rebounds (4.4 RPG) & three point shooting totals (40.4%, on 57/141 attempts) this season have proven huge for Utah State. Especially that last statistic, as Brown II has netted two three point game winners in the past few weeks.

Two clutch moments in Utah State’s escape from Fresno State back in late February. Not traditional game winners, but not one but two clutch moments in a game that essentially led to his team winning a surprisingly tough road game.

As mentioned prior, anyone can win this time of year, it’s March Madness for crying out lout. But not many other teams are primed for an NCAA Tournament appearance like Utah State.

Whether or not that path to the big dance includes a second conference title on Saturday remains to be seen. But you won’t find many folks betting against the Aggies this week.

Larry Muniz covers college basketball as a writer for Mountain West Wire and WAC Hoops Digest. Also as a co-host of the college basketball podcast “Hoops Talk W/Jay & Larry”. He is also a USWBA Member.

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