NFC Championship preview: How the Rams can beat the 49ers

The three things the Rams need to do against the 49ers to advance to the Super Bowl.

And then, there were two.

NFC West rivals square off Sunday with a trip — or at least a short excursion — to Super Bowl LVI on the line. When the Los Angeles Rams kick things off against the San Francisco 49ers, it will be the third meeting this year between these two franchises.

Unfortunately for the Rams and their fans, the first two meetings did not go their way.

Back in Week 10, the 49ers won in dominant fashion, topping the Rams by a final score of 31-10. That game was perhaps notable for how the 49ers began the game, putting together an 18-play drive that covered over 11 minutes of game time, nearly the entire first quarter, that gave the 49ers an early 7-0 lead.

San Francisco followed that with a Pick-Six of Matthew Stafford on the Rams’ ensuing possession, and things were trending in their direction early.

Then in Week 18, with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo dealing with a thumb injury and the 49ers needing a win to get into the playoffs, San Francisco pulled out a three-point win in overtime, setting the stage for their playoff run.

So how does the third meeting between these teams play out? Do the 49ers make it a perfect 3-0 against the Rams on the season, or does Los Angeles become the second-straight team to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium?

Here is what the Rams have to do to beat the 49ers.

4-Down Territory: Aaron Rodgers’ future, overtime rules, picking AFC/NFC champs

Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield discuss the NFL’s most pressing topics in this Week’s 4-Down Territory.

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We have a special guest in this week’s “4-Down Territory,” as Touchdown Wire’s Mark Schofield joins Doug Farrar to discuss the NFL’s most pressing topics. Erstwhile host Luke Easterling will be back next week, but Mark hit it out of the park regarding Aaron Rodgers’ future plans, how to fix the NFL’s overtime mess, and who will represent the NFC and AFC in Super Bowl XVI.

Watching tape (again) with Buccaneers tight end Rob Gronkowski

Rob Gronkowski’s 2021 season may be over, but he was happy to watch tape from that season with Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar.

With 42 seconds left in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ divisional round playoff game against the Los Angeles Rams last Sunday, Bucs running back Leonard Fournette scored a touchdown from nine yards out. That put the score at 27-27, and gave the Bucs a most impressive comeback from a 27-3 deficit halfway through the third quarter. At that point, everybody assumed that Tom Brady was going to do his usual Tom Brady thing, and the Bucs were going to progress in their quest to Run it Back.

Then, Matthew Stafford did a new Matthew Stafford thing, driving his Rams down the field, Matt Gay kicked a game-winning 30-yard field goal as time expired, and just like that, Tampa Bay’s season was over.

Right after that, the futures of Brady and longtime teammate Rob Gronkowski were questioned. Would Brady come back for his age 45 NFL season, and would Gronk follow?

This, we do not yet know.

What we do know is that Gronk isn’t one of those guys who refuses to watch the playoffs after he’s eliminated. From January 24-February 2, Groupon is inviting fans to enter daily for a chance to win an over-the-top Big Game viewing experience at Gronkā€™s 4,486 square-foot home in Foxborough, Mass. for themselves and up to 15 friends for a once in a lifetime experience that most football fans could only dream of. The grand prize winner will be flown to Boston to take over Gronkā€™s house for a watch party complete with local Groupon experiences (indoor bounce house, anyone?) that will ensure this is one epic party.

Fans who arenā€™t selected as the grand prize winner will still have the chance to enter through Feb. 20, to win and experience one of many other bonus baller prizes that Groupon has to offer, including:

  • A trip for two to Las Vegas from MGM
  • A trip for two to Cancun from Great Value Vacations
  • VIP New Kids on the Block Concert Experience from Live Nation (See them on their Mixtape Tour Summer 2022!)
  • Blue Man Group Experience in NYC or Chicago

Fans can learn more and enter to win at www.partylikeaplayer.com.

“I teamed up with Groupon, and I love their experiences,” Gronk told me this week. “Iā€™ve been aware of Groupon for a long time, so when this opportunity was presented, I heard it out and thought it was a great idea. We came up with the idea to have an ultimate Super Bowl party. I mean, I play in the NFL, and Groupon, theyā€™re the experienced pros at throwing things like this, and it was a boom-boom situation. It just made a lot of sense.Ā 

“Iā€™m known to partyā€¦ that was back in my heyday, when I used to get after it. I still love to have a good time, donā€™t get me wrong, and I think a Super Bowl party is the time to have a good time. Thatā€™s what makes football so great, and I actually learned that in my year off. I learned that why people love to watch the game so much is that you can watch the game and be doing many other things at the same time, and still know exactly whatā€™s going on in the game. Thatā€™s the kind of experience weā€™re throwing.

“You can be in an indoor bounce house in my basement. Indoor mini-golf. I mean, while youā€™re watching the game. I mean, I was watching games when I was retired, hanging with my friends. We were playing cornhole and busting each othersā€™ chops. Weā€™re talking, and then we look up, and boom! Itā€™s even more entertainment, because thereā€™s a big hit in the game, or a big play. Football just keeps you entertained the whole time, and while youā€™re also doing something else, like a party experience. So, this is just a boom-boom situation.”

Another boom-boom situation? Watching tape with the best tight end in NFL history when the opportunity presents itself. I was able to do this in late September, when Gronk was working through some early-season injuries…

Watching five plays from the 2021 season with Buccaneers TE Rob Gronkowski

…and he was happy to discuss more plays from the second half of the season, when he was healthy and looked like the Gronk we’re used to.

Film study: Chiefs shouldn’t overcommit to Josh Allen’s running ability

Touchdown Wire’s Laurie Fitzpatrick analyzes game film to see how the Chiefs can contain Josh Allen’s scrambling ability.

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills versus Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Todayā€™s late game features two of the NFLā€™s brightest young stars in a rematch of last seasonā€™s AFC Championship Game.

Both quarterbacks threw five touchdown passes in wild-card round victories last weekend, setting the stage for an epic postseason duel.

Letā€™s go back and look at the Week 5 matchup between the Bills and Chiefs, a 38-20 Buffalo victory, paying particular attention to how Allen affected the game with his running ability.

Allen rushed for six touchdowns during the regular season, including one against the Chiefs. We should note that the Chiefs were without the services of key players in that game, such as defensive tackle Chris Jones and cornerback Charvarius Ward. So when Allen decides to run the ball right up the middle of the defensive line tonight, he likely will be met with more resistance.

When we break down the statistics from that Week 5 matchup, we see that Allen rushed for 41 yards on four attempts in the first half. Allenā€™s running ability opens up space in the passing and ground games.

Allen relied on his legs early in Week 5, accounting for three of the Billsā€™ rushing attempts on their first drive, including a 9-yard touchdown.

On the ultimate play of that drive, the Bills lined up in a two-back set with tailback Zach Moss and wideout Isaiah McKenzie straddling Allen.

Moss acted as the lead blocker as McKenzie took the fake handoff. Allen read the defensive end, but also the linebackers as they took a step to the outside. This is why he felt comfortable with the keeper, also knowing he had two offensive linemen pulling to open a running lane.

When the Bills called this play again, the Chiefs were ready.

Their linebackers didnā€™t bite on the fake to the right. Instead, they stayed home and brought Allen down for a 1-yard loss.

Last week against the New England Patriots, the Bills used the same package. This time, they handed off to McKenzie, and the play went for a 7-yard gain and nearly moved the sticks. So while spying Allen is key, the Bills arenā€™t afraid to go in a different direction.

When the Chiefs defense started spying Allen with at least one defender and allowed their defensive linemen to penetrate the correct gaps in Week 5, the Billsā€™ backfield only totaled 37 yards on 11 carries. Kansas City also was able to also hold Allen to 18 yards on seven carries in the second half.

If the Chiefs are able to contain the edges and allow their defensive tackles to get pressure up the middle against the Bills, they are much more likely to see better results.

In the clip below, two defenders at the second level get to the larger side of the field to stop a potentially big gain to the outside.

Allen undoubtedly can make defenders miss in the open field. His running ability, paired with his arm talent, is unlike any quarterback we’ve seen in recent years. That said, using a spy and forcing Allen to use his arm to win the game is likely to be the lesser of evils for the Chiefs.

A rushing attempt from the running back is less of a threat than one from quarterback because of the even number of blockers and tacklers. But when the quarterback runs the ball, and there is just one misdirection or hesitation from a defender, there will be fewer defenders ā€” leaving huge holes in the defense.

The Chiefs defense would be wise to respect Allen’s legs and force McKenzie and Singletary to win their matchups on the ground.

Bengals RB Joe Mixon shows awesome vision, burst on crucial TD run

Bengals running back Joe Mixon showed just hoe special he is on a crucial 16-yard touchdown run against the Titans.

Anytime you try to run right up the middle against the Titans, the odds are very good that your backs are going to hit defensive linemen Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry like a Yugo crashing into a brick wall, and your offense will go nowhere. If the Bengals were to break the logjam they had with the Titans in the third quarter of their divisional round game, something else was going to have to happen.

The answer? Give the ball to running back Joe Mixon, and flip the script with wide zone runs. The Bengals did this with great success on Mixon’s 16-yard touchdown run with 9:34 left in the third quarter, giving the Bengals a 16-6 lead.

Mixon’s cutback was impressive enough, but the way he was able to track the gaps to the backside of the run really made this special. And then, he just turned on the jets, embarrassing several Tennessee defenders.

This should come as no surprise. Coming into this game, per Sports Info Solutions, Mixon led the NFL in zone runs charted as off tackle or outside with 136, for a league-high 656 yards, and a league-high 447 yards after contact. Mixon had just three touchdowns on such plays (Jonathan Taylor of the Colts led the league in wide zone touchdowns with seven), but the Bengals picked the perfect time to give their premier back another shot at the end zone.

Titans head coach Mike Vrabel has a knack for first-quarter playoff sacks

Titans head coach Mike Vrabel has a rare knack for postseason sacks both as a coach and as a player.

Coming into Saturday’s divisional round game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Tennessee Titans, we knew that the matchup between the Bengals’ offensive line and the Titans’ defensive line skewed heavily in Tennessee’s favor. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow was the NFL’s most-sacked quarterback this season with 53 takedowns, and the Titans’ killer front, led by Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry, has been quite the nightmare for opposing quarterbacks.

Burrow was sacked three times in the first quarter of this game, which puts him on pace to tie the single-game record for sacks with 12 (Bert Jones in 1980, Warren Moon in 1985, Donovan McNabb in 2007). Burrow is ahead of the pace when it comes to a single-game sack record in the postseason — Moon has that record with nine for the Houston Oilers against the Kansas City Chiefs in 1994.

And as it turns out, Titans head coach Mike Vrabel has a very interesting connection in the single-quarter postseason sack record.

You don’t see that every day. A head coach administering a present-day beatdown who was a third responsible for the same as a player?

Well, we have the receipts, as they say. Here’s Vrabel’s sack of McNabb in Super Bowl XXXIX with 3:57 left in the first quarter.

The Bengals had better do something to protect Burrow, or he’ll struggle to exit this game upright, win or lose.

Film study: How Niners’ defensive line can create havoc against Packers

Touchdown Wire’s Laurie Fitzpatrick analyzes how the 49ers’ defensive line matches up against the Packers.

The San Francisco 49ers are absolutely dominating with their run defense, and their four-man rush is obliterating opponents.

Last week, the Niners allowed only 45 rushing yards against the Dallas Cowboys‘ backfield tandem of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott was sacked five times and pressured a whopping 14 times.

It took a few weeks into the season for the Niners defense to show its dominance. But San Francisco’s run defense ranks No. 1 in the NFL in expected points added since Week 8. Similarly, the Niners’ defensive DVOA has improved from 16th in the league to fourth since Week 10. Overall, San Francisco allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards (103.5 per game) in the regular season.

When we look at Saturdayā€™s divisional-playoff matchup against the Green Bay Packers, itā€™s a rematch from a Week 3 nail-biter. The Niners defense forced a pair of three-and-outs in the second half but couldn’t get off the field on the last drive. The Packers then kicked the winning field goal as time expired.

If the Niners want to win this game, they likely will need to outperform Green Bay in the trenches. They must bring down Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers more than once, and that will require more rotations with Arik Armstead and D.J. Jones on the inside.

In the clip below, even against double teams, Armstead and Jones clog the middle and force Elliott to bounce the play to the outside.

When Armstead and Jones are both spread wide in a 3-tech and 4i, respectively, they run a successful twist which pulls in an extra lineman and isolates the edge rushers.

This middle twist worked several times last week against the Cowboys, giving pass-rushers Charles Omenihu, Nick Bosa and Samson Ebukam isolation on the outside.

In the Week 3 matchup, the Packers were able to effectively take out Bosa when he was looking to get to a one-on-one matchup to the outside.

In these clips, we see two examples of chip blocks from the tight end, which ended up taking Bosa out of the play completely. Even if the tight end doesn’t get a clean block, it still gives Rodgers enough time in the pocket to go through his reads.

If the Niners want to prevent this from happening, they would be wise to use numerous edge-over-tackle stunts. In last week’s game, the Cowboys had a similar plan for Bosa. They had tight end Dalton Schultz chip-block Bosa, but instead, the Niners called a double-gap stunt.

With the interior linemen both rushing to the left, this opened up a huge gap for Bosa to come free.

Bosa has the speed and quickness to get to Rodgers. It’s just something the Niners need to work into their game plan.

San Francisco’s four-man front can go toe-to-toe with the best offensive lines in the NFL. But there are upsides and downsides to using a wide-nine defensive front. The four-man spread leaves the edge rushers one on one, so if you have athletic players such as Bosa on the edge, it’s going to be a rough day for the offensive tackles. The downside is the amount of time it takes to reach the pocket. When the defense does get there, the pressure can be smothering.

So if the Niners use a straight rush, expect Rodgers to get the ball out of his hand quickly. Interior twists and edge stunts on second- and third-and-long plays will be the key for the San Francisco defensive line if it wants to keep the pressure on Rodgers.

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Divisional playoff preview: How the Rams can beat the Buccaneers

For the Rams to beat the Bucs and head to the NFC Championship Game, these three things are of paramount importance.

You’d be hard-pressed to find a time this season when Rams head coach Sean McVay was happier than he was after his team’s 34-24 Week 3 win over the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers. The Rams had traded Jared Goff, two first-round picks, and a third-round pick to the Lions for Matthew Stafford, and this was one instance in which Stafford’s plus-level attributes showed up en masse. McVay had grown tired of Goff hitting his head on his own ceiling, but with Stafford, the Rams had nothing but blue sky, as he completed 27 of 38 passes for 343 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 134.0.

Stafford bombed the Bucs’ depleted secondary for three completions on five attempts of 20 or more air yards for 117 yards and a touchdown, and this as close to McVay’s ideal vision for his passing game as you’ll ever see.

ā€œWhat heā€™s done through three games, I think his resumĆ© speaks for itself,” the giddy coach said after the game. “Heā€™s done a great job through these three games. And thatā€™s all he can really do. I think heā€™s just seamlessly accommodated himself or really acclimated himself to being in our building. His teammates love him. His coaches love him. And he just goes about his business. Heā€™s so steady, so consistent. And I just thought he got better as the game progressed. And, you know, love working with him.”

Stafford has had his ups and downs since, and there are clear things about his game that can be countered, but if he’s able to put together a similar performance, and everything else breaks as it did for the Rams in Week 3, there’s a pretty good chance that McVay is about to dethrone the champs and head back to the NFC Championship game for the first time since the 2018 season.

Here’s what the Rams should do in a schematic sense to ensure that the second verse is the same as the first. .

Divisional playoff preview: How the Buccaneers can beat the Rams

If the Buccaneers want to exact revenge from the Rams after a Week 3 embarrassment, they’ll have to do these three things.

Through the first two weeks of the 2021 regular season, Buccaneers head Bruce Arians was a pretty happy guy. His team was coming off the juice of a Super Bowl win, Tom Brady was fully integrated into Arians’ offensive concepts, and a 2-0 record with wins over the Cowboys and Falcons set a pretty nice tone for the new season.

Then, the Bucs traveled to SoFi Stadium to meet the Rams, and things fell apart pretty quickly. In a 34-24 loss, the Buccaneers — who are usually on the right side of the run defense equation — gave up 76 yards on 24 carries, and Tampa Bay’s run offense was, to put it bluntly, awful. Tom Brady was Tampa Bay’s leading rusher with 14 yards on three carries, Brady had to throw the ball far too often with far too little effect, and the Rams — who had leads of 21-7 and 31-14 in this game — were clearly the dominant team. It was Matthew Stafford who riddled Tampa Bay’s defense for four touchdowns.

ā€œObviously not the outcome weā€™re looking for,” Arians said after. “I didnā€™t think we played, in any phase, up to our ability today. Obviously, in the road game, we didnā€™t handle the noise like we should have offensively a couple of times. Weā€™ve just got to get stops on defense, which we never did in the second half. Our pass rush didnā€™t get home and we had to get home to help those guys out and get it done. We didnā€™t score down in the red zone for the first time this year and it was a little disappointing, but weā€™ll bounce back next week.ā€

The Bucs bounced back overall to compile a 13-4 record and the NFC’s second seed, which means that they get to play host to the four-seed Rams this time. If they want to be inhospitable on the way to another NFC Championship game, here are three boxes they’ll need to check.

Wild-card playoff preview: What the Cardinals must do to beat the Rams

If the Arizona Cardinals are to win the first playoff game of the Kliff Kingsbury era, they’ll need to focus on these three things.

The Arizona Cardinals and the Los Angeles Rams faced off twice in the regular season, with decidedly different results. Arizona whomped up on the Rams 37-20 in Week 14, and Sean McVay got Kliff Kingsbury back in Week 14 when the Rams won, 30-23.

On Thursday, Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury discussed the challenges of facing one team three times in the same season.

ā€œWeā€™re starting from scratch, thereā€™s no question. Normally I like to get ahead, but it was hard to get ahead not knowing who your opponent was going to be. We really dabbled in a few of the possible opponents, watched some tape on each one, so itā€™s been a busy week trying to get caught up because weā€™re not in our regular process. Anytime you play a team three times, you have film from previous games you can look at, see what went worked, what didnā€™t, how you can adjust things, how they can adjust things, and just kind of do your best from there.ā€

If the Cardinals are to do their best, and win the first playoff game of the Kingsbury era, they’ll have to pay attention to these three things.