What the Dolphins and 49ers are doing is historic, and could lead to a collision course in the Super Bowl.
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The historic rate we are seeing in Santa Clara and South Beach can’t be overstated.
Both the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins are putting up all-time numbers through the season’s first five weeks, and if they remain on this pace, both will finish as two of the best offenses in NFL history.
Total Dominance
The Dolphins’ offense has been on a hellacious run over the first five weeks of the NFL season. They are currently averaging just over 36 points per game, and their collection of talent from receivers to running backs has been as deadly as any offense in recent NFL memory.
Miami is first in the NFL in EPA/ play at 0.260. The 49ers are right behind them at 0.233. For reference, the 2019 Chiefs have the highest season-long EPA since 2013 at 0.237. So just from an EPA standpoint, these are currently two of the three best offenses over the last decade.
2023 has been business as usual for San Francisco. They are 5-0, and their MonSTARs roster has been impossible to stop. Christian McCaffrey has at least one touchdown in 14 consecutive games dating back to last season. Brandon Aiyuk has hit his stride as the offense’s true No. 1 receiver.
To add onto the 49ers’ success, Aaron Schatz of FTN paints a pretty amazing picture from a DVOA standpoint on just how dominant San Francisco is right now.
San Francisco is the only team in the league to rank in the top 10 in all three phases: second on offense behind only Miami, seventh on defense, and 10th on special teams. They are the only team with a positive DVOA for all five games this season and they aren’t just over 0% in every game, they’re over 25% in every game. The win over the Cowboys is currently the No. 4 best single game this year. (Games 2-5 are all between 78.9% and 80.3% so small changes in opponent adjustments will change the order over time.)
The 49ers also lead the NFL in pass DVOA at 80.1 percent- no other team has higher than a 62.3 percent. That second place team with a 62.3 percent, though? You guessed it- the Dolphins. Each of them are boat racing the rest of the league when it comes to efficiency.
The quarterbacks
It makes sense that the Dolphins and 49ers are both dominating in similar fashions. Mike McDaniel comes from the Kyle Shanahan tree in San Francisco, so the shared mindset of how to win offensively is there. This is why it also seems to perfect as to how both teams feature quarterbacks who are constantly put under the microscope, but fit their respective offenses like Cinderella’s shoe.
If you look where each quarterback ranks in terms of advanced stats, you’ll usually find one if you find the other. In terms of EPA/play, Brock Purdy is first in the league, Tua Tagovailoa is third. Adjusted EPA/play? Purdy is first, Tua is second. Success rate? Purdy is first, Tua is second. CPOE? Tua is third, Purdy is fourth. EPA + CPOE Composite? Purdy is first, Tua is third.
To build off that, Brock Purdy currently has the highest EPA per play of any quarterback over the last 10 years (min. 300 plays).
Is this all to say that they are more talented than Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Joe Burrow? No. But what they are is the perfect extension of their respective head coaches and how they want to run the offense.
For the Dolphins and Tua, it’s anticipating when windows will open and fitting the ball into said windows and letting Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle do the rest, all while making good decisions with the football and getting it where it needs to go. For Purdy, it’s making the correct read, extending the play when needed, and allowing the embarrassment of riches offensively the time to see the play through and make something happen once he gets the ball in their hands.
What we are witnessing out of both offenses is historic. Individual records, and team records alike, are on pace to be broken. Tyreek Hill is currently on pace for 2,213 receiving yards, which would shatter the NFL record. Christian McCaffrey is on pace for 27 total touchdowns, which would place him third all-time for a single season.
The NFL record for points in a season came in 2013 when the Broncos scored 606. The Dolphins are currently on pace for 617. The 49ers are on pace for 568, which would put them in third place behind the 2007 New England Patriots.
We are witnessing two of the most efficient, high-scoring offenses in NFL history in real time seemingly on a possible collision course for Super Bowl LVIII. Two teams with two star-studded rosters, two incredibly efficient quarterbacks, and two of the most forward-thinking offensive minds the game has ever seen. Don’t take this for granted because it’s truly special.
