In a recent interview Calvin Johnson said it’s only a matter of time before his receiving yards record falls. Could Justin Jefferson do it?
Recently, Minnesota Vikings star wide receiver Justin Jefferson broke the record for biggest non-quarterback contract in league history. And he did so for good reason. Not only has Jefferson been arguably the best wide receiver in the league since the Vikings drafted him in 2020, he’s also been the most prolific receiver to start a career in NFL history.
Jefferson holds the record for most yards by a receiver in his first four seasons, with just shy of 6,000 yards. But one record has eluded him so far: The single-season receiving yards record.
Former Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson, the current record holder, recently said in an interview that he believes his record will fall. Johnson, who set the all-time mark back in 2012 with 1,964, had this to say about the record and its impending fall in an interview with Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press:
I mean, it’s bound to fall at some point the way it’s going, so it is what it is… I held it down, I don’t even know how long, over a decade now.
A few receivers have come close in recent years, with the Los Angeles Rams’ Cooper Kupp falling just 17 yards shy of the mark in 2021. Jefferson himself has flirted with the mark in his career. Two years ago, Jefferson came the closest he has to this point, notching 1,809 yards in 2021.
Jefferson was on a torrid pace through the first five games of last season, averaging 114 yards per game before an ankle injury derailed his season—a pace that would have put Jefferson just 23 yards shy of Johnson’s record.
The record is bound to fall at some point, but will Jefferson be the one to become the NFL’s new receiving yardage king, and can he do it this season?
On the optimistic side, Jefferson is well established as the Vikings’ dominant offensive weapon. That’s likely to be even more the case this season as the Vikings try to integrate a rookie quarterback into the fold with first-round pick J.J. McCarthy.
McCarthy likely won’t start right away for the Vikings, but they didn’t draft him to sit on the bench. He’ll eventually work his way into the starting lineup, and he will likely lean heavily on the star receiver.
That factor is likely compounded by the fact that the Vikings may be without star tight end T.J. Hockenson for the beginning portions of the season. Hockenson suffered a significant knee injury towards the end of last season, and though his rehab has been progressing, he still may wind up on the PUP list to start the season – meaning he could be out for the team’s first six weeks. Jefferson’s already dominant role in the offense increases even more if that’s the case.
On the pessimistic side, while Johnson believes it’s inevitable that his record falls one day—and he’s likely right—it’s going to take a Herculean effort by a wide receiver to do it. Even with an extra game on the schedule now as opposed to when Johnson set the mark, no one has been able to topple him at the top of the receiving yardage mountain.
It also shouldn’t be discounted that, while Jefferson is going to be the focal point of the Vikings offense, even with T.J. Hockenson absent from the lineup, other weapons will still eat into Jefferson’s share.
Second-year wide receiver Jordan Addison likely played his way into a larger role in the offense with a solid rookie season last year. The Vikings also signed former Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones in the offseason to improve a running game that was a disappointment in 2023.
So, while Jefferson certainly has the talent necessary to become the new receiving yardage king, he will be fighting an uphill battle to take the crown from the former Lions star. Will he have enough opportunity in 2024 to set a new mark? Only time will tell.
