Category: Rams

Arguments built on small samples sizes are bad.

Arguments condensing an already small sample size into two plays are worse.

But that is what I am going to attempt here today as I introduce you to John Wolford, the new starting quarterback for the Los Angeles Rams and their hope for securing a playoff spot in the season finale against the Arizona Cardinals.

Now, I cannot claim to be the world’s foremost expert on the former Wake Forest quarterback and one-time AAF standout. That title is held by the brilliant Mina Kimes who is more than prepared for this moment in NFL history:

Guys I literally have pages and pages of notes on John Wolford. I'm like the random physicist who specializes in a rare event and gets the call in the science fiction movie. This is my moment.https://t.co/J9n7cdJdqr

— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) December 28, 2020

So I’ll leave the heavy lifting to Mina. But the news that Jared Goff’s thumb injury has the Rams looking to Wolford did drive me to turn on some AAF games from last season. (As an aside, YouTube basically has every AAF game from the now-defunct league if you’re ever bored, looking to fall asleep, or needing to study a sudden starting quarterback in Week 17 of a strange and bizarre NFL season).

It did not take long for me to craft a case, flimsy as it may be, that Sean McVay might see something in Wolford.

We have seen over the years that teams have found perhaps the “blueprint” for stopping McVay’s offense. Yes, that word gets thrown around far too often. I mean, thinking you have a blueprint for success in the NFL when we’re really talking about loosely-controlled chaos is a fool’s errand. But dating back to 2018 one of the ways defenses have approached the Rams is to ignore the pre-snap motion and eye candy, play zone coverage in the secondary (often quarters/Cover 4) and force Goff to make reads and throws in the pocket. It started with Matt Patricia and the Detroit Lions – of all teams – back in 2018 and continued through Super Bowl LIII, and to this day.

In fact, before Super Bowl LIII I highlighted some of these issues with a piece focusing on how the Patriots could “exploit the hesitation” from Goff, and earlier this season I highlighted Goff’s struggles against such “middle-of-the-field coverages” in this video breakdown.

So when I turned on Wolford’s first AAF game, a start against the Salt Lake Stallions where he completed 18 of 29 passes for 275 yards and four touchdowns, I quickly saw a play that made me do this:

This is the play in question:

The Stallions play Quarters technique to one side of the field, and as luck would have it the Hotshots have a Quarters-beater called. The inside receiver runs a deep curl which the safety is forced to cover, and that creates a good opportunity for the outside receiver’s post route working against a cornerback using outside leverage.

Wolford sees it and does not hesitate to throw the post, as you can see from the replay angle:

If you find this play on YouTube you’ll be treated to a lovely discussion of Cover 4 versus Cover 6 or “quarter-quarter-half” from the commentators in the booth.

Wolford notched his first AAF touchdown against a similar coverage, although this looks more like a bust from the safety:

Yet again, you see Wolford read the coverage, hit his drop and attack the middle-of-the-field open coverage with zero hesitation. Here’s the replay:

Wolford also shows nice pocket movement here as he steps around the edge pressure before making a good throw to the post route for the TD. Oh and if you look this play up on YouTube you’ll be treated to a comparison to, and I kid you not, Drew Brees. But stylistically on this play, I can almost see it…

Now, a few things. Is this an absurdly small sample size? Absolutely. Do I believe McVay and the Rams are looking at these two plays as the reason to trust Wolford? Gosh I hope not! But are these the kinds of plays the Rams need their quarterback to hit given the coverage looks they are seeing from opposing defenses? Yes. Has Goff hit these kinds of throws consistently? No.

So, there’s at least that Rams fans. Now go read everything Mina has to say about Wolford.